Adani, Ambani race to lead mega energy transition: Bernstein Research

Bernstein says Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani are racing to transform Kutch's barren salt flats into the backbone of India's energy transition with massive clean power projects

India’s top business tycoons Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani are racing to turn barren salt flat lands in Gujarat’s Kutch desert into the backbone of India’s biggest green power push, with Bernstein Research dubbing it the “Reign of Kutch” in a report on Monday.

 

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) and the Adani group each holds roughly 500,000 acres in the region — enough to generate more than 100 gigawatts (Gw) of solar capacity per group, equivalent to the total installed power capacity of Japan. But the strategies of the two billionaires reflect their contrasting corporate game plans, the report said.

 

Ambani, who built Reliance on oil refining and petrochemical businesses, is shifting from “molecules to electrons”. His group is rolling out a 20 Gw solar module plant using advanced HJT (heterojunction) technology, a 40 gigawatt hour (GWh) battery factory with expansion potential of 100 GWh, and an ambitious plan to produce 3 million tonnes (mt) of green hydrogen annually by 2032. Reliance is also tying clean energy to its digital empire, building multi-gigawatt data centres in partnership with American tech giants Meta and Google, which will be powered by renewables.

 

On the other hand, Adani, who created India’s largest private utility business, is consolidating around his strengths in transmission, thermal power, and renewable project execution. Adani Green Energy has a vast pipeline of power purchase agreements while Adani Transmission is the country’s biggest private network operator. The group is also expanding into data centres through its AdaniConnex venture, and has lined up capacity to support artificial intelligence (AI) demand.

 

Bernstein analysts say Ambani may dominate new-age use cases — hydrogen, batteries, and data centres — while Adani retains the edge in traditional electricity, including renewable power sales, thermal capacity, and transmission. “Reliance will lead in new energy use cases, Adani in traditional electricity use cases,” the report noted. 

 

The report warned that mega capex plans of both the billionaires could have collateral damage for other smaller players. India’s solar manufacturing sector is likely to see brutal consolidation, with Reliance and Adani controlling nearly half of wafer capacity and as much as 90 per cent of polysilicon if import restrictions are tightened. Smaller players like Waaree Energies and Premier Energies may struggle to survive, Bernstein warned. Reliance’s battery ambitions also threaten to swamp competitors as it is currently the only player focused exclusively on storage. Several module manufacturers are lining up for initial public offerings (IPOs), raising money for proposed cell plants to differentiate, while integrated players attempt to leapfrog to the top of the food chain, the report said.

 

Both the groups, however, face challenges, it said. Reliance lacks transmission connectivity, with only 3 Gw mapped so far and new connections unavailable until after 2030. That could force it to either acquire grid assets or focus on producing hydrogen onsite and transporting it. Hydrogen economics remains tough, with global cost curves unlikely to fall below $2/kg before 2040, raising reliance on subsidies. Adani, on the other hand, remains exposed to legacy coal operations that could slow his pivot.

 

The stakes for both the groups are immense. If Reliance hits its green hydrogen targets, it could add $7-8 billion in annual Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) by the early 2030s, alongside another $5-6 billion from solar and storage. For Adani, his grip on transmission and PPAs (power purchase agreements) positions him as the gatekeeper of India’s renewable rollout.