Russia oil import: India's August pipeline strong despite US, EU heat

Private-sector refiners account for around half the imports in Aug

It’s hardly a week into August and India is set to import close to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, and a record amid threats and sanctions from United States President Donald Trump and the European Union (EU), the ship-tracking data accessed by Business Standard show.

 

This is a 38 per cent jump from June and above the 2.1 million bpd in May, according to the data from maritime intelligence agency Kpler. The irony is that the Indian import of Russian oil was the highest this year at around 1.8 million bpd, despite the outgoing Biden administration’s stringent sanctions early this year, followed by 500 per cent tariff warnings from the US Congress, the EU sanctions last month, and Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs.

 

Private-sector refiners Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, on which the EU has imposed sanctions, account for around half the import this month — Reliance at a record 830,000 bpd and Nayara at an all-time high of 330,000 bpd, according to the Kpler data as on Tuesday.

 

Reliance has a 500,000 bpd term contract with Rosneft, which has a 49 per cent stake in Nayara.

 

But the August data must be viewed with caution because the numbers can change by the end of the month.

 

“There will be a short-term disruption. But a complete change of slate, taking away 2 million bpd, is a monumental shift,” said Naveen Das, analyst for Kpler, in a webinar on Tuesday. “If there is a shift in the (number of) barrels there will be a significant price (oil price) upshot.  I think India will continue to buy Russian crude oil but there will be a small disruption and small redirection of flows,” he added.

 

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which kick in on August 7, do not apply to loadings before that date, according to information from the US State Department.

 

Based on a precedent of US sanction policies, which carry a transition period, Indian industry officials said even penalties on Russian crude-oil imports, if levied, would not apply to loadings prior to August 7 or the penalty date.

 

But deliveries of Russian oil in September, for which orders had to be placed towards the end of July or early August, will be affected because it is unclear how much penalty the US will levy and from when it will apply, which in turn affects contracting for oil, two officials in the refining sector said.  

 

Discounts on delivered Russian crude oil are already at record lows of below $2 per barrel and unless Russian traders agree to reimburse the penalties, the crude oil will not offer value to Indian refiners compared to the Iraqi Basrah grade, UAE Murban, or Arab medium, the officials said.

 

New Delhi has categorically said India will continue to buy Russian crude oil or any oil that makes economic sense and which protects national interests.   EU purchase of Russian oil  The EU is one of the biggest contributors to the Russian war machine, according to the Centre for Research on Energy & Clean Air (CREA), a leading Finnish think tank.

 

EU imports of Russian fossil fuels, at 21.9 billion euros, have been largely unchanged in the third year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

 

Entities in the EU and US have likely imported Russian oil products mixed or re-exported from oil-storage terminals in Turkey, the CREA said. 

 

The EUʼs imports of oil products made from Russian crude oil rang up 2.2 billion euros for Kremlin as tax revenue — equivalent to the recruitment cost of over 100,000 Russian troops, according to a recent CREA report.

 

“Between 24 June 2024 and the end of May 2025, the UK imported refined products from the Jamnagar, Vadinar and New Mangalore refineries valued at GBP 1.17 bn,” the CREA said.  

 

“Since the G7+ embargo and price cap on Russian oil products (5 February 2023) till the end of June 2025, Australia has imported $6.4 bn of oil products from three refineries in India using Russian crude, twice their aid to Ukraine, the CREA said. $2.5 bn (3.2 mn tonnes) of these oil products are estimated as being refined from Russian crude.”

 

Trump’s assertion that India sold “much of the Russian oil purchased on the open market” is also unfounded, the ship-tracking data and Indian government data shows.

 

The Indian import of Russian oil averaged 1.8 million bpd in 2023, 2024, and, year to date, 2025. Of this, state-run refiners accounted for 61 per cent last year. But Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum hardly export: They serve the domestic market, where fuel prices are controlled.

 

Reliance and Nayara import the remaining 700,000 bpd, some of which are made into fuels by Reliance and Nayara and sold in the world market. There are no sanctions on such sales, with the EU and US accounting for a quarter of India’s petroleum product exports last year.

 

In value terms, importers in the EU and US paid around $16 billion for fuels from India, according to calculations based on the customs data. India’s petroleum product exports totalled nearly $63 billion in 2024-25.