Opec to boost output for market share; Brent may fall below $65 a bbl

OPEC+ will increase output by 137,000 bpd from October to regain market share, a move analysts say could push Brent crude below $65 and even $55 a barrel by year-end

The latest decision by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, to boost output is being seen as an attempt to regain market share lost to the United States, Brazil and other producers who have recently raised production.

 

However, the move could drive benchmark Brent crude below $65 per barrel, with some experts warning it may even slip under $60 a barrel by December 2025. Currently, Brent is trading in the range of $66–68 per barrel, but prices could drop further as the group has decided to raise production for October despite weakening demand.

 

The oil cartel, which accounts for around 40 per cent of global crude output, announced on September 7 that it would increase production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October as it begins to unwind its 1.66 million bpd output cuts.

 

“OPEC increasing output is going to have a downward impact on prices. The oil market is oversupplied. There are economic headwinds in major economies with Trump announcing tariffs. The US may also be staring at a recession. Big oil consumers are moving towards greener forms of energy, so demand is not really picking up. Amid these factors, crude prices are definitely going to decline from current levels,” said Prashant Vasisht, senior vice-president and co-group head, corporate ratings, Icra. 

 

He added that Brent prices may fall below $65 per barrel by year-end. The decision to boost output in October marks the start of a reversal of OPEC’s 1.66 million bpd cuts, which were earlier set to continue until end-2026. The output increase also comes amid US pressure on OPEC to raise supplies and lower domestic energy bills for American consumers.

 

“There is a possibility of crude prices being flattish or even declining from current levels. The broader idea of OPEC is clear—it is looking at a bigger market share rather than supporting oil prices. The demand estimates for 2025 and 2026 have also been toned down by the IEA in its recent update due to tepid demand sentiment,” said Nitin Tiwari, vice-president at PhillipCapital.

 

Meanwhile, S&P Global has projected crude oil may fall to around $55 per barrel by year-end as OPEC continues to increase production. Beginning April 2025, OPEC+ has been boosting output every month. The September hike fully reversed the 2.2 million-barrel voluntary cuts.

 

The group raised production by 138,000 bpd in April, followed by 411,000 bpd each in May, June and July. It stepped up further with increases of about 550,000 bpd in both August and September. Experts caution, however, that changing geopolitical dynamics, such as the US imposing tariffs on buyers of Russian crude, could add fresh volatility to the market.