Fiscal deficit at Feb-end touches 86.5% of full-year target: Govt data

The government's fiscal deficit at Rs 15 lakh crore at February-end touched 86.5 per cent of the revised annual target, according to official data released on Thursday.

In the corresponding period last year, the fiscal deficit -- or gap between the expenditure and revenue -- was 82.8 per cent of Revised Estimates (RE) of the Union Budget 2022-23.

For 2023-24, the government's fiscal deficit is estimated at Rs 17.35 lakh crore or 5.8 per cent of the GDP.

The central government received Rs 22.45 lakh crore (81.5 per cent of RE 2023-24 of total receipts) up to February comprising Rs 18.49 lakh crore tax revenue (net), Rs 3.6 lakh crore of non-tax revenue and Rs 36,140 crore of non-debt capital receipts, showed data released by Controller General of Accounts (CGA).

Non-debt capital receipts consists of recovery of loans Rs 23,480 crore and miscellaneous capital receipts of Rs 12,660 crore.

The CGA data on monthly account of the Union Government of India said that Rs 10.33,433 crore has been transferred to state governments as devolution of share of taxes by the Government of India up to February 2024, which is Rs 2,25,345 crore higher than the previous year.

Total expenditure incurred by the Centre was Rs 37.47 lakh crore (83.4 per cent of corresponding RE 2023-24), out of which Rs 29.41 lakh crore was on revenue account and Rs 8.06 lakh crore on capital account.

Out of the total revenue expenditure, Rs 8.8 lakh crore was on account of interest payments and Rs 3.6 lakh crore on account of major subsidies.

Commenting on the CGA data, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, said in April-February 2023-24, the net tax revenues rose 7 per cent, non-tax revenues expanded 45 per cent boosted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) dividend, amidst a mild 1 per cent growth in revenue expenditure, and a robust 36.5 per cent year-on-year expansion in capex.

"While there may be some slippage in the disinvestment target, ICRA does not expect the revised fiscal deficit target of Rs 17.3 lakh crore for FY24 to be breached," she said.

Vivek Jalan, Partner, Tax Connect Advisory, a multidisciplinary tax consultancy firm, said of the total budgeted tax revenue of Rs 23.3 lakh crore, the revenue achieved till February 2024 is Rs 18.5 lakh crore.

"Hence, in March 2024, the balance of Rs 4.8 lakh crore, which is 20 per cent of the budgeted revenue, is to be achieved. Although the collections are higher in March generally than in other months, yet even a small undercollection can hit the fiscal deficit adversely," he added.

The fiscal deficit for 2024-25 is estimated at 5.1 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) against 5.8 per cent in the current financial year.

To meet the fiscal deficit, the gap between revenue receipt and expenditure, the government raised funds by issuing bonds in the market.

The Centre plans to raise Rs 7.5 lakh crore through market borrowing in the April-September period of 2024-25 to fund the revenue gap.

Of the gross market borrowing of Rs 14.13 lakh crore estimated for 2024-25, Rs 7.5 lakh crore, or 53 per cent, is planned to be borrowed in the first half.