US President Donald Trump's anti-climate diktat opens more doors for India

Green initiatives in India unaffected, experts flag India's chance to occupy climate leadership role

While US President Donald Trump was expected to take a step back from climate action, the ripple effect of US withdrawal from the Paris climate deal could reorient national and international policies, especially for the Global South, according to experts.

 

Sector leaders expect India to seize this opportunity to bolster its green energy plans and lead the demands of developing nations.

 

On Monday, Trump signed an executive order formally withdrawing from the Paris climate treaty, for the second time since 2017.

 

The growth in renewable energy (RE), electric mobility and energy efficiency in India is driven via private investment and flagship government schemes, which would remain unaffected despite the stand taken by the US.

 

“The impact of the new US administration is likely to be felt not so much in private investments in renewable and clean energy, as on global resource flows for financing clean energy transition. The forces of competitive trade actions in the name of climate may get reinforced,” said RR Rashmi, distinguished fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute (Teri).

Experts across the globe largely expect accelerated global climate action to continue despite steps by Trump 2.0. The two major reasons cited are falling demand for fossil fuels and rise in clean tech and green energy investment.

 

Voice of Global South

 

Climate action advocates are voicing the need for India to step up its efforts towards energy transition and also heed to the demands of the Global South. 

 

India is seen as a leading developing nation which is walking the talk on climate action. As part of its submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs), India has committed to becoming a net zero economy by 2070.

 

It is set to achieve 500 gigawatt (Gw) of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, which currently stands at 200 Gw. 

In the leadership vacuum left by the US, other countries, business leaders and subnational actors will seize the chance to continue the shift to a clean energy economy and not lose the progress on climate solutions, Aarti Khosla, director of Climate Trends said.

 

“In 2022, the world lost $1.4 trillion worth of gross domestic product (GDP) to climate change, of which India lost 8 per cent of its GDP. The upcoming Budget is an opportunity for India to prioritise climate policies and ensure that we are ahead of the curve and not slowing down,” she added. 

In the past, India clarified it is not dependent on the global climate fund to achieve its green goals. But it remains a key proponent of a global climate fund for less developed economies. However, the US's exit may not intrinsically change the current stalemate on climate finance.

 

Last year's global COP meet in Baku, Azerbaijan, had delayed implementation of the earlier plan of $100 billion climate funding by developed nations from 2025 onwards.

 

Instead, rich economies have favoured a $300 billion annual climate finance pledge by 2035. However, India had mobilised key decisions on climate action such as tripling of RE. 

Multilateral events such as the G20 in South Africa and COP30 in Brazil may pivot to a new direction towards climate action, sans the US.

 

“It will take a year to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, making for a very interesting COP 30 in Belém (Brazil). Here, climate leaders and alliances will open up and fall to China, India, Europe, and Brazil. Contributions to international climate finance are likely to decrease dramatically, especially through multilateral forums. But countries may keep an eye out for continued bilateral engagement,” said Medha Prasanna, junior fellow, ORF America. 

Despite US’ withdrawal from Paris climate deal

 

*  Coal, gas, and oil demand may peak by 2030, estimates IEA

 

*  Cost-competitive RE sources gaining pace in developing nations

 

*  US Climate Alliance pledges to reduce 2005-level emissions by 26% this CY

 

*  US exit may not intrinsically change ongoing stalemate over proposed $100 bn climate finance fund