Delhi election 2025: How accurate were 2015 and 2020 exit poll predictions

Delhi Election Exit Polls: As the voting winds up, all eyes will be on the on the exit poll results, set to be released shortly after the polls close at 6.30 pm

Polling for the Delhi Assembly elections will conclude at 6:00 pm on Wednesday, February 5. As the voting winds up, all eyes will be on the exit poll results, set to be released shortly after the polls close. Exit polls have often had hits and misses when it comes to predicting the victory of parties, with more misses in recent elections. Here is a look back on the last two elections in the national capital and how accurate pollsters were in predicting the outcomes. 

 

What are exit polls?

Exit polls aim to capture the sentiments of voters as they leave polling stations. Conducted right after voters cast their ballots, these surveys offer an initial insight into possible election outcomes. The primary goal is to forecast results ahead of the official count, sparking anticipation and fuelling speculation in the days preceding the official announcement.

 

While exit polls are widely used by media organisations and political analysts to predict outcomes, they are not always an exact science. Factors such as sample selection, margin of error, and even the willingness of respondents to provide truthful answers can skew results.

 

Some of the prominent pollsters that are commonly involved in conducting these exit polls include:

• Axis My India  
• CVoter  
• IPSOS  
• Jan Ki Baat  
• Today’s Chanakya  

   

Delhi elections 2025: AAP vs BJP vs Congress

The 2025 Delhi Assembly elections will see a three-way contest between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Congress.

 

For the AAP, the elections represent an opportunity to secure a third consecutive term, building on its previous successes in the city. Meanwhile, BJP, which has been riding high on victories in states like Haryana and Maharashtra, is aiming to reclaim ground in the Delhi Assembly. The Congress party is working hard to revive its influence in Delhi.

 

Landslide win for AAP in 2015

In 2015, exit polls forecast an AAP victory but failed to grasp the magnitude of its win. The average of six major exit polls estimated that AAP would secure around 45 seats, with the BJP projected to win 24 and the Congress one. The actual results, however, saw AAP sweep 67 of the 70 seats, leaving the BJP with just three and Congress with none.

 

No poll anticipated AAP crossing the 60-seat mark, and only one (Axis My India) predicted the party could exceed 50, estimating 53 seats. Meanwhile, most pollsters significantly overestimated the BJP’s strength, with all but one placing it above 20 seats.

 

Exit polls more accurate in 2020

In 2020, exit polls got closer to reality but still underestimated AAP’s final tally. The average of eight polls projected 54 seats for AAP and 15 for BJP. The actual results? AAP won 62, surpassing predictions by eight seats, while the BJP secured only eight. Congress was once again wiped out, an outcome correctly predicted by five of the eight exit polls.

 

The India Today-Axis My India poll came closest, forecasting an AAP victory in the range of 59-68 seats and the BJP in the 2-11 range. However, other polls remained overly optimistic about the BJP’s chances, with some predicting over 20 seats.

 

Exit polls: Hits and misses

Delhi’s elections are not the only instances where exit polls have missed the mark. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, nearly every major exit poll forecast a sweeping victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP-led coalition, predicting over 350 seats. The actual results painted a different picture – BJP and its allies secured only 293 seats, leading to public apologies from some polling firms and calls for investigations into their methods.

 

Likewise, exit polls of Haryana elections last year widely projected a Congress victory, only for the final results to defy expectations. These repeated inaccuracies highlight the challenges of exit polling, including limited sample sizes, non-response biases, and shifts in voter behaviour that are difficult to capture in real time.

 

A total of 699 candidates are contesting in the 70 constituencies of the Delhi Assembly. The counting of votes will take place on February 8.