For 2019, Opposition's only hope: Nitish, Mamata

The overwhelming results were a jolt to most of the Opposition leaders in the joust — Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi, incumbent Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister (CM) Akhilesh Yadav, Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati, and, most of all, Delhi CM and Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal. 

Others humbled in these elections include Uttarakhand CM Harish Rawat and his Goa counterpart Laxmikant Parsekar. Rawat lost one of the two seats he contested, while Parsekar lost on the lone seat he contested. 

Manipur CM Okram Ibobi Singh found his party losing its majority status, but it still emerged as the single-largest party in the state Assembly.

In Manipur, activist Irom Chanu Sharmila, who stopped her 16-year-long hunger strike last year and entered electoral politics, received a mere 90 votes in the Thoubal constituency in Manipur. “I am fed up of elections and won’t fight again,” she said in frustration. Sharmila joins the long list of activists, including Medha Patkar, who have struggled to find their feet in electoral politics.

Sharmila’s disappointment was matched by that of Mayawati. Aghast at winning an abysmal 19 of the 403-seats in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly, despite bagging a respectable 22.2 per cent vote share, she alleged manipulation of electronic voting machines. 

That her Bahujan Samaj Party has won a good vote share should give Mayawati hope that any unity of Opposition parties against Modi can ill afford to ignore her.

While there was no immediate threat to Yadav’s position in the party, he would face tough questions for his decision to align with the Congress, and to give it over 100 seats to contest. The Congress could win only seven. 

At least the SP could hold on to a vote share of 22 per cent, but Congress’ vote shared dropped from 13.26 per cent in 2012 to around 6 per cent in 2017. But in 2012, they both had fought the elections alone. Tougher questions are now going to be asked of Rahul Gandhi. 

In both the 2012 and the 2017 Assembly polls, he led the party’s campaign. The UP shocker will impact the 46-year-old’s plans to revive the grand old party in his home state, and also puts a question mark whether the SP-Congress alliance would extend to the 2019 national elections. 

However, the vote shares of Opposition parties in UP and the example of Bihar make it evident that only the “index of opposition unity” can defeat Modi-led BJP.

The UP results are also a setback for Priyanka Vadra, who played a key role in sewing up the SP-Congress alliance, monitored the polls and provided strategic inputs through all the stages. 

However, Priyanka, the Congress’ star campaigner, limited her presence in the Gandhi family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli and addressed just one rally along with Rahul in Rae Bareli owing to friendly fights in four of the 10 seats in the area. 

At his press conference on Saturday afternoon, BJP chief Amit Shah said his party won six of the 10 seats in the Gandhi family pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli.

Kejriwal and his AAP were also jolted out of their comfort zone, with the party failing to win even a single seat in Goa and failing to pose a big challenge to the Congress in Punjab. It dents Kejriwal and AAP’s plans to displace the Congress in states with bipolar politics, where the Congress and the BJP are the two principal rivals.