Fantasy gaming ban wipes out ₹15000 cr of IPL Ads: Impact on your Portfolio

IPL Ads, stock prices, and mutual funds: Decoding the fallout of India's RMG Ban

No more Dream11 ads during IPL? With the passage of the Promotion & Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025, India’s booming $4 billion real money gaming (RMG) industry has effectively been banned. This has far-reaching consequences — from IPL ad revenues to listed companies like Nazara Technologies, and even how investors should think about ad-dependent business models.

 

According to a recent report by Elara Capital, the ban will erase nearly ₹15,000 crore of ad revenue from the IPL, about 25% of the league’s ₹60,000 crore advertising pie. The absence of aggressive bidding from platforms like Dream11, My11Circle, and WinZO could bring down IPL ad rates, reshaping India’s sports marketing landscape.  Regulatory time line of online gaming in India 

Source: Elara Capital

 

Investor impact: Expect lower ad revenues for listed media/broadcast firms, and moderation in digital ad industry growth to 7.5% CAGR in CY24-25 (down 300 basis points).

 

Why Does This Matter to You?

 

Impact on Listed Stocks

 

Nazara Technologies (CMP: ₹1,116): Faces the sharpest blow. Its ₹10,000 crore stake in PokerBaazi’s parent Moonshine Technologies is at risk, since online poker is now banned. PokerBaazi alone contributed 36% of Nazara’s FY24 sales, meaning investors could see a non-cash impairment of nearly 23% of its asset size.

 

Affle India (CMP: ₹1,936, TP: ₹2,150): Limited impact. While gaming is part of its portfolio, RMG exposure is only 2.5% of revenues and 1.5–1.8% of EPS in FY25, per Elara. Investors here are relatively shielded.

 

"The Promotion & Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025  would dent broadcaster revenue (JioStar and cricket events), slows digital ad CAGR by 300bp to 7.5% during CY24-25, and risks Nazara Technologies’ (NAZARA IN, CMP: INR 1116, Not Rated) Rs 10bn stake in PokerBaazi (23% of assets). Platforms pivot to casual gaming, eSports, over-the-top (OTT), and speculative markets. Programmatic plays, such as Affle 3i  have already pared down exposure post the GST hike on RMG," said Elara Capital in a note.

 

Broadcasters and Media Companies

 

JioStar and cricket broadcasters will lose their most aggressive advertisers. RMG platforms had offset the slowdown in FMCG ads in recent years. This could mean lower ad growth and a possible cooling of IPL sponsorship euphoria.

 

Digital ad industry CAGR is projected to moderate by 300 bps to 7.5% during CY24-25, versus the earlier double-digit trajectory.

 

Winners and Losers Among Companies

1. Affle India – Safe From Fallout

 

Exposure to RMG ads shrank post the GST hike in 2023.

 

By FY25, RMG contributed just 2.5% of revenue and 1.5–1.8% of EPS.

 

With RMG banned, impact is non-material.

 

Growth still intact in e-commerce, OTT, and fintech advertising in India and abroad.

 

Nazara Technologies – Under Pressure

 

Holds 46% stake in PokerBaazi operator Moonshine Technologies (₹10,000 crore, about 23% of assets).

 

PokerBaazi accounted for 36% of Nazara’s FY24 sales (₹4,200 crore).

 

Q1 FY26 already saw a ₹2,000 crore loss from associates, largely due to PokerBaazi.

 

Nazara may face a non-cash impairment worth 5x its quarterly profits.

 

Platforms Pivot to Survive

 

With 86% of India’s gaming revenue (USD 3.7bn in CY24) coming from RMG, companies are forced to reinvent:

 

Dream11 → betting on FanCode (sports streaming), Dream Game Studios (casual gaming), and DreamSetGo (sports tourism).

 

MPL → free-to-play models.

 

PokerBaazi → exploring overseas markets.

 

Zupee → doubling down on casual titles like Ludo.

 

WinZO → pivoting to the US market.

 

Where Could the RMG Money Flow?

 

Elara Capital notes that the billions once spent on fantasy cricket may flow into:

 

Speculative markets: derivatives (F&O) and forex trading.

 

OTT platforms: Netflix, JioHotstar, Prime may grab a bigger slice of ad spend.

 

Consumer tech & e-commerce: discount brokers, food delivery, and legacy brands like paan masala could fill the advertising void.

 

Your Portfolio and Mutual Funds

 

If your mutual funds hold ad-tech or gaming stocks, expect volatility.

 

Funds with heavy allocation to Nazara Technologies or broadcasters dependent on cricket ad revenue may face near-term downside.

 

Balanced or diversified portfolios are less exposed — but if you’ve bet on India’s “gaming boom” via equities, it’s time to reassess sector exposure.

 

What Happens Next?

 

Platforms pivot: Dream11 is pushing FanCode (sports streaming), Dream Game Studios (casual gaming), and DreamSetGo (sports tourism). WinZO is eyeing the US. MPL is moving into free-to-play titles.

 

Capital reallocation: Industry watchers expect RMG money to flow into speculative financial markets like F&O trading and forex.

 

Ad space takeover: The ₹15,000 crore “vacuum” in IPL and cricket ads could be filled by e-commerce, consumer tech, paan masala, and even discount brokerages.

 

"The RMG industry’s share of 25% or Rs 15 billion is likely to go away from IPL ads worth Rs 60 billion, with key contribution from Dream 11, My 11 Circle and WinZO. We assess elevated advertising rate will cool off, due to aggressive bidding among RMG plays. The post ban white space could be chased by new-age platforms from eCommerce, consumer tech, legacy paan masala firms and discount stockbrokers," noted Elara Capital.  User base of RMG platform’s indicates there are several apps per user 

Source: Tracxn,  Elara Securities Research

 

 

Personal Finance Takeaway

 

For investors: Revisit holdings in Nazara or RMG-adjacent companies. Short-term pain may persist, but diversified gaming and ad-tech players like Affle look more resilient.

 

For advertisers: The RMG exit opens doors — if you run a business targeting mass audiences, IPL ads may soon become more affordable.

 

For consumers: Expect fewer fantasy cricket ads this IPL. Your screens may now be dominated by e-commerce offers, fintech apps, and travel platforms instead.  Promotion & Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 

Source: Report by Elara Capital