 "Gold may surge to $4,600 as central banks, ETFs fuel demand: Emkay Wealth")
Gold continues to glitter on the global investment landscape as geopolitical tensions, currency shifts, and institutional demand strengthen its appeal as a safe-haven asset. According to Emkay Wealth Management, gold remains on solid technical footing, with upside targets pegged at US$4,368 and $4,600 per ounce, while support levels exist around $3,890 and $3,510.
The precious metal recently touched $4,368 in October before a modest pullback to just under $4,000 by month-end, driven by a 1.4% appreciation in the US dollar over the past month. Despite this correction, analysts at Emkay believe that the longer-term trend for gold remains upward, supported by sustained institutional and central bank demand and a weakening dollar environment over the past year.
“The geopolitical issues that have persisted in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have led investors to seek safety in gold,” Emkay noted in its report. “The US dollar’s 8% depreciation over the past year has also supported a broad rally in commodities, including precious metals.”
Institutional and Central Bank Buying Adds to Momentum
One of the strongest drivers behind gold’s resilience is the wave of inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to Emkay, year-to-date inflows stand at $65 billion, with nearly $20 billion added in the last three months alone. Central banks have been key participants in this trend, diversifying their reserves away from dollar-denominated assets amid mounting global macroeconomic uncertainty.
“This renewed accumulation reflects a structural shift in asset allocation,” the report observed. “Global institutions and sovereign entities are looking for alternatives to US Treasuries and the dollar amid concerns over prolonged fiscal imbalances, currency debasement, and geopolitical fragmentation.”
Safe-Haven Demand Back in Focus
The flight to safety theme remains pronounced in global markets. Persistent conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, coupled with concerns over slowing global growth and sticky inflation, have reinforced gold’s role as a hedge against volatility and systemic risk.
Moreover, investors are increasingly viewing gold as a store of value amid uncertainty about the future direction of monetary policy. While several major central banks have slowed their tightening cycles, inflation remains above target in many developed economies, suggesting that real interest rates could stay low or even turn negative, bolstering the case for holding gold.
Technical Outlook and Strategy
Technically, Emkay Wealth’s analysis suggests gold could continue consolidating near the $4,000 mark before attempting another move higher. The firm’s upside resistance targets of $4,368 and $4,600 represent potential breakout points, while downside supports at $3,890 and $3,510 are seen as accumulation zones for long-term investors.
The advisory recommends that investors “hold existing positions and add on dips”, viewing current price corrections as an opportunity rather than a threat. “Gold’s long-term structure remains intact, supported by continued institutional buying, diversification away from the dollar, and resilient consumer demand,” it said.
The Macro Context: Why Gold’s Rally May Have Legs
Dollar weakness: Over the past year, the US dollar has depreciated by 8% against major currencies, making gold relatively cheaper for non-dollar investors.
Inflation uncertainty: Sticky inflation and concerns about fiscal imbalances have reinforced the role of gold as an inflation hedge.
Central bank diversification: Emerging markets and developing nations are accumulating gold as part of efforts to reduce dollar dependency.
ETF inflows: Record inflows of US$ 65 billion in 2025 underscore sustained retail and institutional confidence in gold as an asset class.
Geopolitical instability: Continuing tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have maintained the bid for safe-haven assets.
Investor Takeaway: Stay Invested, Buy on Dips
For investors, the message is clear: gold continues to serve as a crucial portfolio diversifier amid an era of heightened uncertainty and shifting global power dynamics. While short-term corrections are inevitable, the long-term trajectory remains upward, supported by macro and technical fundamentals.
From an asset allocation perspective, financial planners typically recommend allocating 10–15% of portfolios to gold, either through ETFs, sovereign gold bonds (SGBs), or physical holdings. For those already invested, holding through volatility may prove rewarding; for new investors, temporary dips below US$ 4,000 could represent attractive entry points.
Emkay Wealth’s analysis captures this sentiment succinctly: “Those who are already invested may hold on to their positions and add on dips.”
With support levels established and institutional interest intact, gold’s glow appears far from fading — making it one of the most resilient asset classes heading into 2026.