Over 62 mn tuberculosis cases, 8 mn deaths in India during 2021-2040: Study

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Over 62 million cases of tuberculosis and eight million deaths are estimated in India in the two decades up to 2040, along with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss of more than $146 billion, according to a study.

The researchers, including those from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK, said that low-income households would bear the larger share of health-related burden, while the high-income ones the larger share of the economic burden due to the disease.

Tuberculosis is a bacterial disease that can spread in the air when an infected person coughs, sneezes or speaks. Primarily affecting the lung, the condition can be potentially fatal, as it can spread to other organs. The common symptoms include a persistent cough, chest pain, fever and fatigue.

Improving case detection rates -- currently estimated to be 63 per cent -- and meeting the World Health Organization's End-TB target of 90 per cent could reduce clinical and demographic disease burdens by 75-90 per cent, and macroeconomic burden by $ 120.2 billion, predicted the study published in the journal PLoS Medicine.

Combining improved case detection with 95 per cent effective pan-TB treatment could reduce clinical and demographic disease burdens by 78-91 per cent and reduce the macroeconomic burden by $124.2 billion, it found.

The authors said that despite an increase in funding for combating tuberculosis since 2000, it is still "far short of global financing targets".

They called for an increased investment in improving case detection and effective treatments, including drug-resistant tuberculosis, which can develop in mismanaged and ill-treated patients.

For the analysis, the researchers developed a model which simultaneously captured the macroeconomic, health and demographic impacts of tuberculosis in India. Data, including those from the National Family Health Survey-4 (2015-16), was used for analysis.

"We estimated that, from 2021 to 2040, the health and macroeconomic burdens of TB (tuberculosis) in India will include over 62.4m incident cases, 8.1m TB-related deaths and a cumulative GDP loss of $146.4bn," the authors wrote.

"Our model predicts that low-income households would bear larger health and relative economic burdens while larger absolute economic burdens would fall on high-income households," they wrote.