G20's dialectic deadlock: India is treading the path carefully, tactfully

Widely differing positions on Russia-Ukraine war have created a nightmare for Indian diplomats struggling to arrive at an agreeable language for the joint communique ahead of G20 leaders' summit

During a tour of the Virupaksha temple in Hampi, the guide encouraged the G20 delegates to make a wish at the sacred stone near the entrance if they were encountering obstacles during the current round of negotiations. “There are plenty (of obstacles),” Indian Sherpa Amitabh Kant retorted, prompting laughter from everyone.

As the Sherpas or chief negotiators started discussing the draft joint communiqué in Hampi, India’s G20 presidency entered its most critical phase. In early July, the first draft communiqué was circulated to members, based on which 17 hours of gruelling co-drafting sessions were conducted at the scenic world heritage site in Karnataka. India plans to circulate a second draft before the end of July after incorporating the changes put forward by members. Sherpas will meet one last time in Manesar, Haryana, in early September before the leaders gather on September 9-10 in New Delhi to approve or disapprove a joint communiqué.

India played a crucial role in bringing out a joint communiqué at the last year’s G20 meet in Bali, Indonesia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pronouncement that “today’s era must not be of war” was accepted by all members including Russia. Now, however, Russia believes the situation has changed from what it was during the Bali summit with the G7 group of advanced economies involving themselves in the conflict by supplying Ukraine with arms and ammunition.

On the other hand, the G7 countries want a stronger condemnation of Russia for the Ukraine war but are willing to settle for the Bali language. “Bali (language) needs to be the starting point. There are some important elements in Bali, such as the statement on nuclear inadmissibility, which are key,” a G20 delegate familiar with the US position said. China, on the other hand, in the recently concluded Finance Track meeting in Gandhinagar, said the G20 “is not the right forum to discuss geopolitical issues”.

India is treading the path carefully and tactfully. It is not insisting on joint communiqués at the ministerial levels, settling for chair summaries to avoid a situation where its presidency is dominated by the Russia-Ukraine war dispute. At Hampi, India avoided discussions on the Ukraine war at the group level, while trying to gauge each country’s position bilaterally and through “sofa talks”.

“The Russia-Ukraine war is not a priority for us. Our priority is development issues. That is why we will discuss it right at the end,” Kant said while briefing the media at Hampi.

In public, Indian diplomats maintain a tough posture; in private, however, they remain anxious about building a consensus. In case G20 members fail to agree on a common language on the Russia-Ukraine war, it will be the first time since 2008 that any G20 leaders’ summit won’t have a joint communiqué. India, which has made the presidency a prestige issue, leaving no stone unturned to promote it, would not like such an outcome.

While a “joint communiqué” at G20 is not legally binding unlike bilateral, plurilateral or multilateral agreements, it represents the common minimum agenda agreed upon by all members and often paves the way for future multilateral agreements. A “chair’s summary”, on the other hand, summarises the discussions, highlighting the key decisions made but signals lack of consensus on a few contentious issues. A “chair’s statement” is the weakest document from a summit and reflects the personal views of the chair and can’t claim to be summarising the discussions.

“There is a lot of hope for a joint communiqué. I will even bet on it. Some heavy lifting may be required. The ground for that needs to be prepared. We understand that if we don’t make any reference about the Ukraine war, then there might not be any outcome,” an Indian G20 diplomat said.

However, he conceded that things could dramatically change at the last minute. After leaders arrived in Bali for the G20 summit last year, a missile hit Poland and there were suspicions that it may have originated from Russia. The G7 countries huddled for a discussion. Things calmed down after it emerged that it didn’t originate from Russia. “Had the missile come from Russia, there might not have been a joint communiqué at Bali,” the official added.

While a clear path to a consensus paragraph on the Russia-Ukraine war is not in sight yet, Indian diplomats have readied about half a dozen options to drive consensus. The past declarations may serve as reference points.

The G7 summit in May mentions Russia 23 times and strongly condemns Russia over the Ukraine invasion. However, the Quad summit on the sidelines of the G7 meet agreed to a much moderate language because India is a member. The India-US joint statement during Prime Minister Modi’s state visit to the US does not mention the word Russia. “That’s why we see scope for reconciliation. Eventually, when it really becomes critically important, we don’t see why a communiqué should not emerge,” a second Indian diplomat said.

“The joint communiqué needs to have an inclusive para on the Russia-Ukraine war with diversity of views. We can’t make everybody happy through the joint communiqué. The idea is to make everybody equally unhappy,” the first Indian diplomat quipped.

Reference points

Bali G20 joint communiqué (Nov 16, 2022)

· Mentions Russia and Ukraine five times each

· Deplores in the “strongest terms the aggression” by Russia and demands its “complete and unconditional withdrawal” from Ukraine

· Mentions PM Modi’s pronouncement that “today’s era must not be of war”

G7 Hiroshima Leaders’ communiqué (May 20, 2023)

· Mentions Russia and Ukraine 23 times each

· Calls out Russia’s “illegal war of aggression”, condemns in the “strongest possible terms”

Quad leaders’ joint statement (May 20, 2023)

· No mention of Russia, mentions Ukraine twice

· Expresses “deep concern over the war raging in Ukraine” and denounces threat of use of nuclear weapons

· Reiterates Modi’s statement that “ours must not be an era of war”

India-US joint statement (June 22, 2023)

· No mention of Russia; mentions Ukraine thrice

· Expresses “deep concern over the conflict in Ukraine”