On Holi, temperatures may surpass 40°C as climate change hits hard

Recent findings from Climate Central reveal a concerning consequence of rising temperatures in India: the disappearance of the spring season

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India’s vibrant Holi, the festival of colours, coincides this year with a concerning trend — spiking temperatures.

A new study by Climate Central sees the likelihood of unprecedented hot weather during late March/early April this year compared to the 1970s.

This roughly translates into shortening of the spring season with summers arriving early and staying longer. This year, Holi will be celebrated on March 25.
 

The ‘Heat Trends for Holi’ report underscores the concerning probability of temperatures surpassing 40°C during the Holi festival.

ALSO READ: Ganges, Brahmaputra among major river basins to feel climate change impact

Back in the 1970s, only Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Bihar had the likelihood of 5 per cent to encounter such extreme heat.

However, in the current year, this risk expands significantly to encompass nine states.

In addition to the original three states, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh now face the threat of experiencing these dangerously-high temperatures.

Recent findings from Climate Central reveal a concerning trend of rising temperatures in India and the disappearance of Spring.

A study published just days ago highlights this phenomenon, indicating a swift transition from winter to summer-like conditions across many parts of Northern India, notably during February.

This shift, attributed to human-induced climate change, fuelled by burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas, has been observed through significant warming trends from 1970 to 2023.

Alarmingly, all regions experienced notable warming in February, with nine states witnessing differences of over 2 degrees Celsius between January and February.

ALSO READ: Ganges, Brahmaputra among major river basins to feel climate change impact

The ‘Heat Trends for Holi’ study also reveals a rise in average temperatures across India in March and April.

Jammu and Kashmir has seen the most dramatic warming, with a 2.8°C temperature increase since 1970. This warming translates into a heightened risk of extreme heat events.
 

Experts attribute this trend to human-caused climate change. Andrew Pershing, vice-president for science, Climate Central, points to the “abrupt transition” from winter to hot conditions and the long-term warming trend as clear signs of climate change impact.
 

“There has been an abrupt transition from winter-like temperatures to much warmer conditions now. After the strong warming trend observed in February, March is also likely to follow the same pattern,” Pershing said.
 

The risk extends beyond state boundaries. Over 37 major cities now have at least a 1 per cent chance of witnessing temperatures above 40°C during Holi.

Notably, 11 cities have a 10 per cent or greater probability.

Bilaspur in Chhattisgarh tops the list with a daunting 31 per cent chance, a 2.5-fold increase over the past data period.