India faces a 20% decline in primary-school-age children by 2036: Study

India's population in the 5-9 age group is projected to fall from 125.3 million in 2011 to 100.2 million by 2036, amid declining fertility and changing demand for primary education, says a study

India’s primary-school-age population is projected to decline from 125.3 million in 2011 to 100.2 million by 2036, a fall of about 20 per cent, according to a new working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM).

 

The paper, titled How India is Transforming Educational Capacity under the New Education Policy 2020, puts the population in the 5-9 age group at 112.7 million in 2026, about 10 per cent lower than in 2011. It is projected to fall by a further 11 per cent over the following decade.

 

The paper describes this as the “first clear demographic evidence” of a shrinking pool of children entering primary-school age. India's total fertility rate fell from 2.1 in 2019 to 1.9 in 2024, according to data from the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner cited in the study.

 

The projections, prepared by the National Commission on Population using Census 2011 as the base year, point to a sustained decline in the number of children entering primary school. The authors say smaller cohorts could reduce aggregate demand for foundational and primary education in some regions, with implications for school planning and resource allocation.

 

The paper is authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, member of the EAC-PM and Group Chief Economic Advisor at the State Bank of India, and economist Shashidharan Sharma.

 

School demand is shifting geographically

 

The national decline, however, does not mean school demand is falling uniformly across the country. Between 2012-13 and 2021-22, enrolment across Classes I-XII in rural-located schools fell by about 7.8 million to 179.3 million. Urban-located schools, meanwhile, added around 9.3 million students, taking enrolment to 76.4 million. The urban share of total enrolment rose from 26.4 per cent to 29.9 per cent.

 

State-level trends also differed. Bihar recorded increases in both enrolment and the number of reported schools, while Rajasthan saw enrolment rise despite a fall in its school count. Tamil Nadu recorded lower enrolment even as its reported school count increased.

 

Uttar Pradesh's nearly unchanged overall enrolment also masked a geographical shift: rural enrolment fell by 1.946 million, while urban enrolment increased by 1.76 million.

 

These figures cover all school classes and are based on the location of schools; they do not establish where students lived or why enrolment patterns changed.

 

Primary-only schools see sharper decline

 

The demographic shift coincides with changes in India's school network. Between 2018-19 and 2025-26, the total number of reported schools fell by 5.4 per cent, from 1.551 million to 1.467 million. The number of primary-only schools—those offering only Classes I-V—declined by 12.6 per cent, from 827,000 to 722,000.

 

In contrast, the number of schools offering Class XII rose by 29.7 per cent, from 130,000 to 169,000.

 

The authors identify declining primary-age populations and operational difficulties faced by very small schools as factors behind the reduction in primary-only schools. The National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 proposes school complexes and clusters that allow smaller institutions to share teachers, infrastructure, leadership and other resources while continuing to provide instruction at multiple locations.

 

The authors caution that a fall in the number of reported schools should not automatically be read as evidence of closures or used to justify shutting schools. Planning, they argue, must account for local demand, accessibility, travel distances and the capacity of neighbouring schools to accommodate additional students.