India's January minimum temperature likely to be above normal: IMD

Central India to face below-normal cold waves in January

Minimum temperatures for January are likely to remain above normal except in some northern parts of the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, while cautioning that central India may experience below-normal cold waves in the first month.

Releasing its monthly temperature and monsoon forecast for January 2024, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a virtual press conference that monthly maximum temperatures for January 2024 are likely to be below normal over many parts of central and northwest India.

He said above-normal maximum temperatures are also likely over most parts of peninsular and northeast India.

A sudden and sharper increase in temperature in January could harm the standing rabi crops, particularly wheat and mustard. Traders and market players said weather will be key till March to get optimum wheat production this year. However, the government is confident that the production will be good as almost 60-80 per cent of the total sown area is under heat-tolerant wheat varieties.

Till December 29, 2023, wheat was sown in nearly 32.05 million hectares of land across India, which is marginally less compared with the same period last year.

Agriculture Commissioner PK Singh told news agency PTI on Monday that the last leg of wheat sowing, which is underway and will continue for the next ten days, would make up for the lag in the crop coverage in the 2023-24 rabi season. Currently, the wheat crop is in the germination and tillering stage. The crop prospects are seen to be good under the present cool temperature, Singh added.

On rainfall, the IMD said that during the coming winter season (January to March 2024), rainfall over North India - consisting of seven meteorological subdivisions of (East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh) - is most likely to be normal, meaning in the range of 86-114 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

IMD said normal to above normal seasonal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country, except parts from extreme south peninsular India, extreme northwest and northeast India where below normal rainfall is likely. Month-wise, monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during January 2024 is also most likely to be above normal, which means more than 118 per cent of the LPA, IMD said.