India's monsoon begins to retreat after delivering surplus rains: IMD

Country sees rainfall surplus of 5% but there's 13% deficit in east and northeast

After drenching much of the country with heavy rainfall, the southwest monsoon has started its retreat from parts of West Rajasthan and Kachchh, nearly a week later than usual, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This withdrawal signals the end of the monsoon’s four-month journey across the mainland, which typically commences in June with its arrival in Kerala.

As on September 23, India had received a cumulative rainfall surplus of 5 per cent, with nearly all regions reporting above-average precipitation.

But rainfall caused by the southwest monsoon has fallen short of the long period average (LPA) in eastern and northeastern states, including West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Assam, which recorded nearly 13 per cent less precipitation. Arunachal Pradesh faced the most significant deficit at 30 per cent, followed closely by Bihar, with a shortfall of 28 per cent for the seasonal period spanning June 1 to September 23. So far (until September 23), Central India has recieved most rainfall -- a surplus of 16 per cent than the LPA.

The abundant rain has bolstered the sowing of kharif crops to one of their best levels in recent years. A strong end to the monsoon season has also replenished reservoirs and this augurs well for the upcoming rabi sowing. Moreover, the late surge in rainfall may have enhanced residual soil moisture levels.

Until September 20, based on the latest data from the government, kharif crops had been sown across approximately 110.46 million hectares, reflecting a 1.51 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, and 0.80 per cent above the normal acreage, defined as the average of the past five years (2018-19 to 2022-23). The standouts this season were paddy, arhar, groundnut, soybean, and maize.

A bumper harvest of these crops may help the government to ease some of the stringent export and domestic trade restrictions imposed over the past year due to lower-than-expected production levels. Steps are already underway to relax certain curbs, including the elimination of the minimum export price (MEP) for basmati rice and onions.

Additionally, the government has increased the import duty on edible oils to protect farmers after a combination of bumper production and low-cost imports driven the rates of oilseeds below their state-mandated minimum support price (MSP).

Sources said that further measures, such as relaxing restrictions on non-basmati rice exports, may also be on the horizon.

However, the delayed rainfall surge has resulted in flooding in parts of the country, inundating fields and creating challenges for farmers. The full impact of these unforeseen weather events on final agricultural output remains to be seen, as damage assessments are still underway.

In the wake of these developments, vegetable prices have surged due to transportation difficulties from rural areas. While this could complicate the Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to manage inflation in the near term, overall food inflation may remain subdued thanks to the promising kharif production.