India to see above-average temperatures in March, wheat crop at risk

India will have above-average temperatures in March across most regions following a warmer February, the weather office forecast on Friday, conditions that could threaten winter-sown crops such as wheat, chickpea and rapeseed.

 

Both maximum and minimum temperatures will be above average in most areas in March, D.S. Pai, a senior scientist at the state-run India Meteorological Department, told reporters. 

India, the world's second largest wheat producer, is counting on a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid expensive imports, after three consecutive years of poor crop yields. 

But higher temperatures could cut yields for the fourth straight year, trim overall wheat production and force authorities to lower or remove the 40% import tax to facilitate overseas shipments by private traders to tide over shortages. 

Reuters reported on Thursday that India was poised to enter the summer season with one of the warmest Marches on record, and above-average temperatures through most of the month threaten to cut yields of the maturing wheat crop. 

Heatwave days are expected over most parts of central regions, some adjoining northern areas of southern India and parts of northeastern and eastern regions, Pai said. 

Indian farmers primarily grow wheat in the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and the central state of Madhya Pradesh. 

India was forced to ban wheat exports in 2022 after a sharp rise in temperatures in February and March that year shrivelled the crop. 

Indian wheat prices jumped to a record high this month due to dwindling supplies.