Monsoon ends with 8% surplus rains in 2025, but withdrawal stalled

India's 2025 southwest monsoon ended with 8 per cent surplus rains, the fifth highest since 2001, but withdrawal has stalled due to fresh low-pressure systems over Bay of Bengal

The four-month southwest monsoon season officially ended on Tuesday, with the country recording eight per cent surplus showers, even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted “above normal” showers in the coming four weeks across the nation.

 

The record monsoon rains across India during the June to September months was 937.2 millimetres, the 5th-highest since 2001 and 38th-highest since 1901.

 

“This season, against a normal of 55 days of Low Pressure Systems (LPS) out of the 122 days of monsoon, we had 69 days of LPS out of 122 which caused such copious rains,” IMD’s Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told reporters.

 

The Met department, meanwhile, also said that fresh bout of rains, which will lash almost all parts of central, western, eastern and north-eastern areas of the country, means that withdrawal of southwest monsoon has been stalled for more than a week and the cessation activities are not expected to progress much beyond North-West India for now.

 

“Monsoon withdrawal is delayed over Central India, West India, East and North-East due to the influence of low pressure systems that has formed over the Bay of Bengal,” Mohapatra said.

 

He said that in October, rainfall across the country is expected to be “above normal” at more than 115 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). LPA for the month of October across India is 75.4 millimetres.

 

“In October, most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, some areas in Northwest India and extreme south peninsular India and isolated pockets in Northeast India, may experience below-normal rainfall,” the met department said.

 

Not only that, the rains in the whole post-monsoon period of October-December across India is projected to “above-normal” at 112 per cent of the LPA.

 

“There is a 71 per cent possibility of development of La Nina in the October to December period, which could cause more showers but the La Nina would be very short-lived,” Mohapatra said.

 

On the fears of harsh winter this year due to La Nina, Mohapatra said that there are some studies that show that during La Nina, temperatures become “below-normal”, but there is no one-to-one correlation.

 

“Moreover, for now, IMD has issued temperature only for the month of October. For the winter months, we will release the forecast later,” he said.

 

On the monsoon, IMD said that in 2025, only Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya saw deficient rainfall in three of the four monsoon months.

 

“Rainfall over East and Northeast India this monsoon season was the second lowest since 1901. The lowest rainfall (1065.7 mm) in the monsoon season in the region was recorded in 2013,” he said.