Monsoon likely to hit Delhi by June 22, ahead of normal schedule

Delhi has been facing scorching summer heat over the past two weeks, with heat index temperatures reaching as high as 54.4 degrees Celsius last week

The southwest monsoon, which has made rapid progress across central, western and eastern India over the last two days, is expected to reach Delhi and parts of Haryana and Punjab within the next two to three days. 

An official from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday confirmed that Delhi is likely to see the arrival of the monsoon by 22 June, which is earlier than the usual date of 30 June. 

According to the IMD’s extended-range forecast, rainfall is expected across several parts of northwest India, including Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. This wet spell is expected to last from 20 to 25 June. 

The southwest monsoon this year made an early arrival over Kerala on 24 May—the earliest since 2009, when it arrived on 23 May. Aided by strong low-pressure systems in both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, it quickly moved through central Maharashtra (including Mumbai) and reached the entire northeast by 29 May. 

However, the initial rapid progress hit a long pause, lasting from 29 May to 16 June, during which little advancement or rainfall was recorded.

Heatwaves due to lack of rain in early June

The pause in rainfall during early June caused a sharp rise in temperatures, resulting in heatwave conditions across large parts of northwest and central India in the second week of June. 

The monsoon picked up pace again between 16 and 18 June, following the formation of two low-pressure systems on 17 June—one over West Bengal and another over Gujarat, located on opposite sides of the country. 

 

Traditionally, the monsoon reaches Kerala by 1 June, arrives in Mumbai by 11 June and covers the entire country by 8 July. It begins to retreat from northwest India around 17 September and completely withdraws by 15 October. 

Meteorologists caution that the timing of the monsoon’s arrival does not necessarily reflect the total seasonal rainfall. “An early or delayed arrival in Kerala or Mumbai does not necessarily indicate similar progress in other parts of the country,” they explained. 

They added that the monsoon is shaped by a mix of global, regional and local factors, which makes it highly variable.

Forecast: Above-normal rainfall likely in most areas

In its May forecast, the IMD said that India is expected to receive 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall, which is 87 cm for the June–September season. Rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered “normal”. Hence, this year’s forecast suggests above-normal rainfall across most regions. 

Most parts of the country are likely to receive above-average rainfall, with the exception of Ladakh, nearby areas of Himachal Pradesh, the northeast, and certain parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha. Additionally, a few scattered areas in Punjab, Haryana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may experience lower-than-normal rainfall. 

The monsoon is vital to India’s agriculture, which supports around 42 per cent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the national GDP. It also plays a crucial role in refilling reservoirs, which are essential for drinking water and electricity generation across the country.