Low prices dampen sentiment in rabi sowing season despite good outlook

Things are in place for a good rabi harvest. But farmers must contend with poor prices for their kharif harvest. And that may have a knock-on effect on rabi prices in a vicious cycle

Everything seems to be going for the Indian farmer these days but prices — thanks to a complex interplay of supply, demand, and government intervention.

 

Sowing in the rabi season, which runs from October to December,  has begun well, there is enough fertiliser to go around, the weather has been kind, and soil moisture is just right. 

“The good spell of dry weather after a vigorous monsoon and post-monsoon period and early arrival of winters have ensured that sowing of wheat is progressing very well this year which has been supplemented by the near- absence of any shortage of key inputs such as fertilisers as farmers have done advanced stocking,” said Inderjit Goraya, a prominent farmer leader from Haryana. 

Goraya, who heads the Haryana Unit of All India Kisan Congress, however, said that crop prices continue to be a matter of concern for most farmers as they are nothing compared to what was expected. 

Data from the department of agriculture shows that as on November 7, 2025, rabi crops have been sown on around 13.03 million hectares (mha) of land, which is 27.12 per cent more than the area covered during the same period last year as farmers rushed into cash in on the good soil moisture. 

Usually in the full sowing rabi season, crops are sown over around 64 mha. This means till November 7, only around 20 per cent of the total area has been covered. But this initial burst indicates that there is enough room for acreage to be good this season. 

Wheat, the main rabi crop sown in North India, had been planted on around 129 per cent more area till November 7 in comparison with the same period last year. But prices are a different story. 

“Wheat prices are subdued for now and on Tuesday, markets were trading at around ₹2,775-2,800 per quintal, which is more than MSP but much lower than previous months,” Navneet Chitlangia of the Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India said. 

Good rains 

Data shows that from October 1–November 11, cumulative rainfall across the country was 37 per cent higher than its Long Period Average (LPA), with regional variations – rainfall was higher by 16 per cent in east and north-east India, 128 per cent in the north-west, 63 per cent in central India, and by 37 per cent in south peninsular India. 

When it comes to soil moisture, official data showed that as of October 29 it was similar to, or better than, the average of the past nine years in most parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Odisha, Haryana, Punjab, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. These states are big producers of all major rabi crops. 

The soil moisture was only lower than the average of the past nine years in pockets of five states — Bihar, Jharkhand, UP, Assam and West Bengal. 

Further, supplies of key inputs, such as seeds, fertilisers and pesticides are reported to be adequate ahead of the main sowing season. 

“The outlook for the coming rabi season is highly encouraging on the back of a favou­rable and well-distributed monsoon, which has brought improvements in soil moisture and reservoir positions across major agricultural regions. This provides a strong foundation for key rabi crops such as wheat, pulses, mustard, and other oilseeds, with expectations of healthy acreage and yield,” R G Agarwal, chairman emeritus, Dhanuka Agritech Ltd told Business Standard. 

“In order to harness the full potential of this season, farmers should adopt timely crop protection measures, balanced nutrient management, and scientific agronomic practices with new technologies,” Dhanuka said. 

Reservoir levels, groundwater up 

As of 6 November, the total live water storage in 161 important reservoirs across the country (monitored by the Central Water Commission) was 165.278 billion cubic metres (BCM), which is 90.57 per cent of total live storage capacity (182.479 BCM). The current year's storage is nearly 105.60 per cent of last year's storage and 118.69 percent of the average storage of the last ten years during the corresponding period. 

“The overall storage position is better than the corresponding period of last year in the country as a whole and is also better than the normal storage during the corresponding period,” an official report of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) said. 

As far as groundwater is concerned, data shows that in August 2025, around 89 per cent of the country’s monitoring stations had a water level within 10 metres below ground level. Deeper water levels of more than 20 metres were seen in around 5 per cent of stations, especially in western Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh. 

The CWWG report said that the annual water level comparison (August 2024 versus August 2025) has shown that about 56.5 per cent of analysed stations saw a rise in annual water level because of the higher monsoon rainfall this year. 

“About 70 per cent of the analysed stations of the unconfined aquifer experienced a rise of water level in August 2025, compared to the decadal mean water level fluctuation from 2015-2024,” the ministry of agriculture said. 

It is worth noting here that data for groundwater comes with a lag; hence, there has likely been further improvements to ground water levels in subsequent months. 

Crop prices in focus 

However, when it comes to crop prices and realisation from farming, farmers could be in for a hard time because mandi prices of major kharif crops continued to trade below their respective minimum support prices (MSPs) in early November, official data showed. 

This is because of factors such as a good kharif season (July to October) harvest, cheap imports, and zero import duties on key agricultural produce. 

Between November 2024 and October 2025, India imported 16.3 million tonnes of edible oils, which was almost similar to the quantity imported during the corresponding year-ago period. Though India has import duties on crude and refined edible oils ranging from 27.5 to 35 per cent, these have not succeeded in curbing supplies. 

Though there could be inter-state and inter-day variations and prices have improved since late September, in general, official data shows crop prices are on a softening trend, particularly when compared with the same period last year. 

As of November 5, among kharif crops, moong led the fall with an almost 28 per cent drop in mandi prices as compared with its minimum support price, followed by ragi, groundnut and soybean, which was selling 22 per cent lower than its MSP of ₹5,328 

per quintal. 

This could have serious implications for farmers’ earnings as the kharif harvest has picked up pace since late October. The window between the kharif harvest and rabi sowing is narrow – less than a month for some crops – which means farmers have little time to market their crops and invest in equipment and inputs. This in turn runs the risk of a cascading effect on the rabi harvest. 

According to a report by CareEdge Ratings, deflation in the food and beverages basket deepened further to 3.7 per cent in October, from 1.4 percent the previous month. “Within the food basket, deflation widened in items such as vegetables (-27.6 per cent year-on-year), pulses (-16.2 per cent), and spices (-3.3 per cent),” it said. The report said that overall food inflation is 

expected to remain at moderate levels, supported by healthy agricultural activity and a favourable base. 

Official data showed that as of November 4, around 43.25 per cent of the kharif area had been harvested all over India. Of this, around 53 per cent pulses, 84 per cent oilseeds, 64 per cent coarse cereals and 30 per cent of rice area has been harvested for kharif crops of 2025-26. 

The Centre on October 31 imposed a 30 per cent import duty on yellow peas effective November 1 to try and stem the fall in domestic pulses’ prices. Days before that, it announced a ₹15,095.83 crore procurement plan for pulses and oilseeds. 

The plan, which will be implemented in Telangana, Odisha, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh — the main pulse producers — for the kharif season 2025-26, also includes approval for the launch of Bhawantar Bhugtan Yojana (price differential payment scheme) for soybeans in Madhya Pradesh. 

These steps are expected to start showing results in the weeks to come. If not, then, following a poor kharif, farmers might continue to suffer a price drop in the rabi season as well.