India's air passenger traffic to see 7% growth in 2025: Alton Aviation

Joshua Ng said India, which contributes approximately 10 per cent of Asia Pacific's domestic and international air traffic demand, has already returned to pre-pandemic levels

India's air passenger traffic is expected to grow at a strong pace of 7 per cent in 2025, supported by a growing middle class and increasing air travel affordability, according to Joshua Ng, Director of US-headquartered Alton Aviation Consultancy.

Bullish on aviation prospects in India, Ng said the country, which contributes approximately 10 per cent of Asia Pacific's domestic and international air traffic demand, has already returned to pre-pandemic levels.

"Such growing demand in turn supports India's massive aviation development programmes including setting up of 150 airports across the country," Ng told PTI on Friday.

He further noted that "India's passenger traffic is expected to grow at a strong pace of 7 per cent in 2025, supported by an order book of nearly 1,900 aircraft among airlines based in the country."  Besides, "the recent merger between Air India and Vistara is also expected to bring more stability to the industry, with Air India and IndiGo emerging as the two primary players in the full-service and low-cost carrier segments respectively," he underlined.

Giving a global perspective, he said as global air traffic has returned to pre-pandemic levels, the aviation industry will continue its long-term growth trend of 4 per cent per annum from 2024 to 2034, supported by a 2.7 per cent annual growth in global GDP.

The Asia-Pacific region is projected to remain the largest market for air travel, with an anticipated growth rate of 5.1 per cent per annum, driven primarily by increasing long-term demand from China and India, added Ng.

Citing data from Alton's "Aviation Outlook 2025 Supply Chain Challenged", he said, order backlog for A320neo aircraft is 7,216, and the 10-year forecast average annual production rate is 741, which implies 9.7 years of backlog.

Major aircraft deliveries face a backlog of 9.7 years, Ng said, citing data from Centre for Aviation (CAPA) and Alton's own analysis.

However, as the aviation industry rebounds into record passenger and revenue numbers in 2025, industry stakeholders need to watch out for risks such as normalising yields, inflation, and geopolitical pressures.

Prime among these challenges are the supply chain and labour shortage issues that COVID-19 has left as a long-lasting legacy.

For airlines in particular, the focus is also on how to maximize the use of aircraft resources -- reducing turnaround times or optimizing schedules in order to increase daily utilization. Some have even turned to wet-leasing aircraft to supplement their capacity although doing so will depend heavily on specific route economics, he noted.

"Navigating these hurdles is essential for aviation stakeholders, particularly as these challenges look to persist for the next few years," cautioned Ng.