Power Ministry teams up with IMD to develop weather tools for renewables

The Power Ministry is collaborating with the IMD to develop advanced forecasting tools aimed at improving electricity demand predictions and supporting the integration of renewable energy

Power sector planners are struggling to accurately forecast electricity demand and integrate weather-dependent renewable energy, senior industry leaders said, highlighting the need for new forecasting tools, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven solutions, and stronger market mechanisms.

 

Speaking at the BloombergNEF summit in New Delhi on Friday, Ghanshyam Prasad, chairman of the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), said forecasting India’s power demand remains uncertain due to unpredictable consumer behaviour and weather conditions. This year’s continuous rainfall brought peak demand down to 242 gigawatt (Gw) against the projected 270 Gw, even lower than last year’s, he said.

 

Prasad said renewable energy resources like solar and wind make accurate weather predictions crucial. "For renewables, we must be able to track the cloud movement at a particular location. Unless we do that, we will not be able to sustain the power sector. The CEA and the Ministry of Power have taken up the matter with the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), and the Ministry of Earth Science,” he said.

 

The CEA chairman also informed that the Authority is developing tools for long-term weather forecasting. “We are trying to build long-term, long-range forecasting tools, which can give us at least some predictions that can be helpful to the planners, particularly in demand forecasting and resource adequacy forecasting,” he said.

 

Speaking at the same event, Vrushali Gaud, global director for climate operations at Google, pointed to AI as a tool to bridge such forecasting gaps. “We have seen almost 33 per cent improvement in energy usage of our systems, and 44 per cent improvement in the carbon footprint reduction… Internally, we have deployed AI in many different ways in understanding how to do better demand forecasting and load balancing, and in understanding energy efficiency, and looking at hotspots,” she said.

 

The event also hosted Rahul Munjal, chairman and managing director (CMD) of Hero Future Energies, who said India’s newly launched electricity derivatives market is unlikely to become mainstream soon. “Derivatives markets exist all over the world but they’re small. Until we have a very mature market, we will not have a mature financing system. So, I do not think it is going to be the mainstay, not at least in the next decade or so,” he said.