Tyre industry to grow 7-8% in FY26, driven by replacement demand: Crisil

Crisil expects India's Rs 1 trillion tyre industry to grow 7-8% in FY26, mainly driven by replacement demand, while OEM volumes and global trade risks continue to pose challenges

India’s Rs 1 trillion tyre industry is expected to post a steady revenue growth of 7–8 per cent in FY26, driven largely by robust replacement demand, which accounts for nearly 50 per cent of the sector’s annual sales, according to Crisil Ratings. Rising premiumisation trends are also expected to aid realisations marginally, even as original equipment manufacturer (OEM) offtake remains subdued and global trade headwinds cloud the outlook.

 

Crisil forecasts volume growth at 5–6 per cent, similar to the last fiscal. The replacement segment is expected to grow 6–7 per cent on the back of a large vehicle base, rural recovery, and strong freight movement. OEM volumes, which contribute roughly 25 per cent, are projected to rise 3–4 per cent, buoyed by steady sales in two-wheelers and tractors, with modest gains from passenger and commercial vehicles. Exports, also contributing 25 per cent of volumes, are likely to grow 4–5 per cent, supported by demand from Europe, Africa, and Latin America.

 

Tyre maker Ceat sees signs of optimism. “We expect raw material prices to decline by 1–2 per cent in Q2 over Q1, largely due to softening crude oil and international rubber prices,” said Kumar Subbiah, CFO and Executive Director of Ceat. “If demand stays stable, this could positively impact our margins. The trend looks encouraging, and we are hopeful of margin recovery.” 

 

Crisil also pointed out that operating profitability is expected to remain stable at 13–13.5 per cent, supported by steady input costs and high capacity utilisation. Input cost pressure has been easing, offering some relief to manufacturers. Natural rubber prices had surged 8–10 per cent in FY25, alongside increases in crude-linked inputs like synthetic rubber and carbon black, eroding margins by nearly 300 basis points.

 

However, the industry faces external risks. The US, which made up 17 per cent of India’s tyre export volume last fiscal (and 4–5 per cent of total industry volume), has imposed reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, potentially hurting competitiveness. Moreover, steep US tariffs on Chinese goods could push Chinese producers to dump excess inventory in price-sensitive markets like India. Although India has a 17.57 per cent anti-dumping duty on large truck and bus radials from China, other segments remain vulnerable.

 

“Price competition could intensify if low-cost Chinese tyres flood the Indian market,” warned Poonam Upadhyay, Director at Crisil Ratings. “This is particularly worrying for the already competitive replacement segment.”

 

Despite ongoing cost pressures, the sector’s financial resilience remains strong, aided by conservative balance sheets and prudent capital spending. Capex is expected to remain steady at around Rs 6,000 crore, focused on high-utilisation segments such as passenger car radials and two-wheeler tyres, automation, and backward integration.

 

The top six tyre makers, who account for 85 per cent of industry revenue, are expected to maintain a healthy financial profile, with interest coverage improving to 8.0 times and debt-to-Ebitda ratio easing to 1.0 from 1.3 last year.