Asian Paints surges 25% in 2 months; brokerages see more upside in stock

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Asian Paints share price today

 

Asian Paints share price moved higher by 2 per cent to ₹2,920.50 on the BSE in Tuesday's intraday trade, bucking the otherwise weak market sentiment, on expectation of a healthy business outlook.

 

The stock was the top gainer among the 30-share index BSE Sensex at the time of writing this report. In comparison, the benchmark index was down 0.44 per cent at 85,262 at 12:46 PM.

 

The stock price of Asian Paints had hit a 52-week high of ₹2,926 on November 11, 2025. It has bounced back 37 per cent from its 52-week low level of ₹2,125, hit on March 4, 2025. In the past two months, Asian Paints share price has rallied 25 per cent.

 

Asian Paints, Paint sector outlook

 

The paints industry took a beating in Q2FY26, primarily due to the incessant rains in the quarter, along with a shorter pre-Diwali season. The unfavourable weather patterns led to a pause in the recovery that was visible in early Q1FY26. The mix was also unfavourable for most players as heavy monsoons impacted the sale of higher-margin exterior paints.

 

Asian Paints management, however, expects double digit volume growth momentum to sustain in the second half (April to September) of the financial year 2025-26 (H2FY26) on the back of improved sales of external paint products, festive demand, and increased demand from real estate and industrial paints. It expects volume and value growth gap to be around 4-5 per cent. Hence, overall value growth will be in mid-single digit in H2FY26, it said.

 

This gap will gradually reduce with a better mix driven by higher premium/luxury product sales, it added.

 

Meanwhile, crude oil and its derivatives, which form a critical cost component for paint manufacturers, has been declining as investors hoped for a truce between Russia and Ukraine. The recent softening in crude prices has led to a decline in key raw material inputs such as monomers, resins, and solvents. A reduction in crude oil prices not only improves gross margin visibility for paint companies but also enhances pricing flexibility in a competitive market, according to analysts.  CATCH STOCK MARKET LIVE UPDATES TODAY

Brokerages see more upside in Asian Paints stock price

 

Analysts at ICICI Securities expect Asian Paints' revenues and profit after tax (PAT) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively, over FY25-28 with an upward revision likely in volume growth trajectory for the coming years.

 

The stock is trading at 60.7x and 54x its FY26E and FY27E EPS, which is at a discount to its 5-year average multiple of 67x. In view of better growth visibility, the brokerage firm upgraded its rating on Asian Paints to 'Buy’' post Q2 results with a revised share price target of ₹3,330 (valuing at 58x its average FY27-28E EPS of ₹57.4).

 

Softer industry demand weighed on decorative offtake, though October-November showed early signs of recovery. The near-term momentum should improve, supported by a strong marriage season, better rural sentiment after a good monsoon, and a pickup in discretionary consumption aided by GST rate cuts. Competitive intensity, while still elevated, has begun to stabilise and firms are sharpening innovation, execution and regional initiatives, said analysts at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates.

 

"Asian Paints has emerged as the top performer in the quarter, posting industry leading revenue and operating profit growth, aided by a lower base and internal initiatives to ramp up growth. This kind of performance from the market leader was seen after 6 quarters of revenue declines," the brokerage firm said with an 'Accumulate' rating and a target price of ₹3,140 per share.

 

Asian Paints is focused on innovation, brand salience, regionalisation, and execution excellence to drive consistent growth. While competitive intensity remains elevated, the demand environment is stabilising, and with the peak of disruption behind, Asian Paints appears well-positioned to sustain steady growth and defend its market leadership, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

 

Given that the worst of demand pressure is behind, coupled with stability in competitive pressure and benign raw material, the brokerage firm has increased EPS by 4-6 per cent. With expectations of better earnings, analysts have also raised target valuation multiple to 50x (10-year average P/E) on Sep’27E EPS to derive a target price of ₹3,000. It reiterated 'Neutral' rating.

   

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Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.