How will HUL fare in Q3 post-ice cream biz demerger? Analysts weigh
Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate HUL's net profit to average ₹2,568.5 crore, compared to ₹2,541 crore a year ago, up 1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y)
 "How will HUL fare in Q3 post-ice cream biz demerger? Analysts weigh")
HUL Q3 results preview: Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) is slated to release its third quarter (Q3FY26) results on Thursday, February 12, 2026.
Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate HUL's net profit to average ₹2,568.5 crore, compared to ₹2,541 crore a year ago, up 1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Sequentially, the profit after tax (PAT) is expected to rise around 4 per cent from ₹2,478 crore in Q2FY26.
The company's revenue for the quarter under review is expected to climb 4 per cent in Q3FY26, on average, to ₹16,022.28 crore as compared to ₹15,408 crore a year ago. On a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, the revenue is poised to gain 2.8 per cent from ₹15,585 crore in Q2FY26.
How will HUL fare in Q3FY26? Brokerages decode
Emkay Global Financial: HUL, with a predominant play in home-and-personal care, has seen goods and services tax (GST)-related disruptions to sales in October. With improving sales in November, analysts expect a gradual recovery in growth and anticipate underlying volume growth at 2 per cent.
The company's value growth is likely to see an impact from the separation of the ice-cream business, which is likely to impact the full quarter. Given non-seasonal quarters, the brokerage sees a growth impact of 100 basis points (bps). Adjusted for the ice cream business, the like-for-like (LFL) revenue is poised to grow 4 per cent.
Its Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin is likely to benefit from the low-margin business separation. Analysts see Ebitda margin at 23.6 per cent, up by 20 bps Y-o-Y. Though adjusted for the ice cream business in the base, we see Ebitda margin contraction of 30 bps.
Consolidated Ebitda is forecasted to grow 4 per cent to ₹3,840 crore. Lower liquidity and yield are expected to have a bearing on other non-operating income, which is expected to decline, thus hurting profit before tax (PBT) growth by 1 per cent. With a lower effective tax rate (26.5 per cent for Q3FY26, against 27.2 per cent in Q3FY25), the brokerage sees adjusted profit after tax (PAT) growth at 2 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹2,579.7 crore Y-o-Y. ALSO READ | Britannia Q3 preview: Profit may rise 18%; margins, volumes to improve
- 1.5 per cent Y-o-Y growth in home care, as price cuts largely offset volume growth.
- 3.8 per cent Y-o-Y growth in beauty and personal care (BPC), as strength in skin care/color cosmetics is offset by the lingering impact of GST transition in personal care/hair care.
- 6 per cent Y-o-Y growth in food and refreshments (F&R) excluding ice creams, led by continued pricing-led strength in beverages.
Kotak estimates a 50 bps Y-o-Y expansion in gross margin to 51.2 per cent, due to favorable raw material trends (particularly crude) and exclusion of ice creams. Ebitda margin is pegged at 23.2 per cent, up 25 bps on a reported basis; 40-50 bps tailwind due to ice creams demerger, after factoring in the following:
- 10 bps increase in royalty.
- Adverse operating leverage due to channel destocking.
- Higher promotions to support the channel inventory liquidation.
On an LFL basis (excluding ice creams), Ebitda is expected to grow by 1.5 per cent Y-o-Y.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services: The organic business is expected to deliver 4 per cent revenue growth led by 3 per cent volume growth. Reported revenue growth has been 2 per cent due to the demerger of the ice cream business. The transitory impact of GST rate rationalisation weighed on the first half of Q3. Analysts anticipate revenue growth of 3 per cent in home care and personal care each, 8 per cent in Beauty and Wellbeing, and 2 per cent in F&B.
Reported Ebitda margin is expected to decline marginally by 20 bps to 23.2 per cent. On an underlying, LFL basis, margins have contracted by 60 bps. However, at the reported level, margins benefitted by 50–60 bps due to the demerger of the ice cream business, which was a low-margin segment.
PL Capital: HUL has not seen a sharp but a slow recovery in Q3. Demand will show a gradual improvement, and analysts expect a range-bound margins and 3.3 per cent volume growth post poor volumes in 2Q26.
Disclaimer: Views and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised.