Britannia Q3 preview: Profit may rise 18%; margins, volumes to improve

Britannia Q3 results preview: Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate Britannia's net profit to average ₹687 crore, compared to ₹581.7 crore a year ago, up 18 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y)

Britannia Q3 results preview: Biscuit maker Britannia is slated to release its third quarter (Q3FY26) results on Tuesday, February 10, 2026.

 

Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate Britannia's net profit to average ₹687 crore, compared to ₹581.7 crore a year ago, up 18 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Sequentially, the profit after tax (PAT) is expected to rise 5 per cent from ₹655.93 crore in Q2FY26.

 

The company's revenue for the quarter under review is expected to climb 10 per cent in Q3FY26, on average, to ₹5,062.48 crore as compared to ₹4,592.6 crore a year ago. On a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, the revenue is poised to gain 4.5 per cent from ₹4,840.6 crore in Q2FY26.  Check Q3 Results today

 

Britannia Q3 results expectations:

PL Capital: The brokerage expects Britannia's volume to grow 5 per cent in Q3, aided by grammage addition in smaller packs and price cuts in bigger packs. Gross margin is likely to increase by 328 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to 42 per cent. 

 

A slow recovery is likely to set in, as the full benefit of the goods and services tax (GST) rate cut begins to materialise. 

 

Emkay Global Financial: Analysts see domestic revenue growth at 10 per cent Y-o-Y, with 6-7 per cent volume growth. The brokerage's ground checks suggest decent off-take of old MRP products by retailers till November, when analysts expected faster growth for the company. Given the fast turns in the category, retailers who take advantage of the situation would have stocked up on inventory, which might lead to a 

positive surprise.  

 

Normative growth for the company from Q4 is anticipated, when GST-related benefits will be visible. Analysts continue to view execution as crucial for driving faster growth. Under the new CEO, they would seek guidance on the adjacent businesses, where the company has made management changes.  

 

Gross margin is likely to expand by 230 bps Y-o-Y (on a high base) to 41 per cent. Prices of wheat, palm oil, sugar, and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) were soft on a Y-o-Y basis. Employee spending had a low base of ₹110 crore, wherein the Phantom stock accounting had a reversal of ₹75 crore. Given the near-flat stock price through Q3, Emkay sees the phantom stock impact to be minimal. 

 

Normative 5 per cent increase in employee spending (adjusted for the Phantom stock) is likely. Optically, there will be a 71 per cent increase Y-o-Y in absolute employee spending and a 130 bps Y-o-Y rise in spends as a percentage of net sales. With the onboarding of the new CEO, analysts seek guidance on phantom stocks; the previous CEO had called out a review of the scheme in FY27. 

 

Aided by better gross margin, brokerage sees Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin expansion of the company by 80 bps Y-o-Y to 19.2 per cent, and Ebitda is poised to grow 15 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹970.4 crore.   

 

Kotak Institutional Equities: Since 85-90 per cent of Britannia's portfolio (all categories, excluding bread/rusks) saw a GST rate cut, Kotak estimates some unwind in Q3 of the 200-250 bps impact of trade destocking on domestic revenue growth seen in Q2. 

 

Further, grammage hikes in lower unit packs (LUPs) (65 per cent sales mix) will aid volume growth. Analysts anticipate 7 per cent Y-o-Y growth 

in biscuit volumes (versus -3 per cent in Q2). They build 6 per cent Y-o-Y price-mix (versus 7-8 per cent in the prior two quarters). 

 

Consolidated revenue (including OOI) is expected to grow at 11.4 per cent Y-o-Y (versus 3.7 per cent in Q2). Consolidated gross margin is likely to expand 305 bps Y-o-Y to 41.8 per cent (10 bps Q-o-Q) on a low base. Consolidated Ebitda is pegged to grow 18.4 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹1,000.2 crore, as Ebitda margin is likely expand by 115 bps Y-o-Y to 19.6 per cent. 

Despite a high base (Q3FY25 had lower-than-expected staff costs due to revaluation/adjustment of ₹75 million pertaining to SARs). 

 

Motilal Oswal Financial Services: The brokerage expects 12.5 per cent revenue growth Y-o-Y, led by volume growth of 8 per cent. The growth will be led by gram mage hikes in LUPs (60-65 per cent sales mix).  Gross profit margin is expected to expand 300 bps Y-o-Y to 41.7 per cent on a low base, and Ebitda margin is likely to improve 90 bps Y-o-Y to 19.3 per cent.  The company is expected to continue to focus on innovation and distribution channels to gain market share. 

 

Disclaimer: Views and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised.