M&M 'firing on all cylinders' as analysts project strong multi-year growth

Sports utility vehicle (SUV) maker Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is set for a period of sustained, broad-based expansion, with domestic brokerages Nuvama Institutional Equities and Emkay Global projecting strong multi-year growth across the conglomerate’s automotive and farm equipment divisions. 

 

Insights from the company’s analyst day indicate robust product pipelines, aggressive electrification plans, improving industry dynamics and a renewed global push, all reinforcing the automaker’s leadership ambitions through FY30.

Nuvama: Strong revenue trajectory, Buy rating retained

 

According to Nuvama, M&M’s revenue is expected to compound at 15-40 per cent across segments over FY25-30, reflecting strong momentum in the domestic SUV business, commercial vehicles (CVs), electric vehicle (EV) rollouts and the farm equipment division. Consolidated automotive revenue alone is projected to expand at a 20 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), driven by sustained demand for utility vehicles and new model launches.

 

The brokerage highlighted the company’s upcoming products, particularly the XEV 9s seven-seater EV, a new model slated for unveiling in November 2025, and the BE7 e-SUV, built on the INGLO platform with flexible seating and a 79kWh battery pack. In 2027, M&M intends to roll out its Vision series (S, SXT, X, T), developed on the new NU_IQ platform engineered across the UK and India.

 

The NU_IQ architecture, aimed at the 4-metre and sub-4-metre SUV segment, is designed to improve ground clearance, second-row comfort, safety compliance and structural flexibility for multiple powertrains, including EV, hybrid and ICE. Nuvama noted that minimal changes are expected from the BE7 prototype to production, signalling accelerated execution.

 

On the farm side, Nuvama expects consolidated segment revenue to grow at 12 per cent CAGR, underpinned by a higher industry growth estimate of 9 per cent (versus 7 per cent earlier), market share gains in regions such as Brazil, North America and ASEAN, and strong traction for new products like Oja, Target and Naya Swaraj. Export volumes are projected to rise at a 12 per cent CAGR over FY25-28.

 

Nuvama forecasts 15 per cent revenue CAGR and 19 per cent core earnings CAGR over FY25-28, with return on invested capital remaining above 60 per cent. It retains a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of ₹4,200, valuing the core business at 25x Sep-27E EPS and subsidiaries at ₹942 per share.

Emkay: EV scale-up, LCV revival and global SUV push to drive growth

 

Emkay Global, which attended the same analyst meet, echoed the strong growth outlook but maintained a more tempered stance, retaining an ‘Add’ rating while raising its target price to ₹3,800 (from ₹3,650), rolling forward to Dec-26 earnings.

 

The brokerage noted M&M’s 15-17 per cent FY25-30 revenue CAGR guidance for Auto and Farm, alongside 20 per cent CAGR for consolidated Auto driven by premiumisation, EV adoption and a ramp-up in the light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment. M&M targets an eight-fold scale-up in SUV revenue between FY20 and FY30, driven by the INGLO and NU_IQ platforms.

 

EVs remain central to the company’s long-term roadmap, with M&M aiming for 20-30 per cent EV contribution by FY30, compared to 8 per cent currently. The company is also targeting ICE-like profitability in EVs, supported by localisation and platform efficiencies. EV capacity is set to rise from 5,000 units per month to 8,000-9,000 units, with further expansion planned via a greenfield site by CY28.

 

On the LCV front, Emkay sees near-term tailwinds as the post-GST total cost of ownership reset offsets years of input-cost inflation, potentially unlocking a multi-year replacement cycle.

 

In SUVs, early post-GST data shows strong demand revival, with October 2025 industry growth of 19 per cent for SUVs and 13 per cent for small cars. Export run-rates of 3,500-4,000 units per month are expected, led by Scorpio-N and XUV 3XO.

 

The farm division, too, is benefiting from higher horticulture and cash-crop profitability, with industry CAGR raised to 9 per cent for FY25-30. Globally, the company continues to gain traction, holding 10.4 per cent share in the sub-20HP US tractor market and 20 per cent share in Brazil’s sub-50HP segment.

 

Despite the strong long-term roadmap, Emkay noted limited visibility on ICE SUV launches in the next 12-15 months and the high base effect as near-term constraints on upside.

 

With both brokerages showing confidence in the company’s execution and long-term strategy, M&M appears set to consolidate its leadership across SUVs, EVs and tractors as it enters an aggressive product-led growth cycle through FY30.