Nalco, Hindalco, Vedanta rally up to 5% on heavy volumes in subdued market

In the near term, analysts expect aluminium prices to remain firm, aided by lower inventories and production disruptions in China.

Vedanta, Hindalco, Nalco share price today

 

Shares of aluminium companies Hindalco Industries, Vedanta and National Aluminium Company (Nalco) rallied up to 5 per cent on the BSE in Friday’s intra-day trade amid heavy volumes in an otherwise subdued market.

 

Nalco (up 5 per cent at ₹382.80) and Vedanta (up 3 per cent at ₹699) hit 52-week highs, while Hindalco was up 2 per cent at ₹963.65 in intra-day deals. In comparison, the BSE Sensex was down 0.14 per cent at 82,196 at 11:34 AM.

 

What's driving aluminium stocks on Friday?

 

Alcoa, a global leader in aluminium, reported a robust performance in the fourth quarter (October to December) of the calendar year 2025 (Q4CY25). The company’s revenue for the quarter stood at $3.4-$3.45 billion, up 15 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter improved sharply to $546 million, (vs ~$276 million). The aluminium segment’s adjusted EBITDA came in at $520 million (vs $307 million in Q3CY25).

 

During Q4CY25, Alcoa’s earnings were driven by higher aluminium prices, stronger regional premia, and lower alumina input costs, resulting in a sharp QoQ rise in EBITDA despite softer alumina prices. Management expects LME aluminium prices to strengthen into 2026, with an 8 per cent QoQ increase reported in Q4CY25, supported by continued aluminium deficits in the US and Europe and capacity constraints in China due to caps. 

 

Structural support from the US tariffs and Europe’s CBAM are likely to keep all-in prices elevated. While Alcoa incurs over $1 billion annually in gross tariff costs, higher the US, Midwest premia have enabled effective pass-through, making tariffs net positive at current levels. This pricing environment should also benefit Hindalco’s US subsidiary Novelis, helping offset tariff-related cost pressures and support its can and specialty segments, despite mixed auto demand, ICICI Securities said in a note.

 

According to analysts at Elara Capital, LME aluminium prices have moved up further in January, supported by declining inventory. Rising production costs in China, driven by energy curtailments for the ongoing winter and environmental compliance challenges across upstream and downstream operations have continued to support prices. In the near term, aluminium prices are expected to remain firm, aided by lower inventories and production disruptions in China, the brokerage firm said in the metals & mining sector update.

 

In the October to December 2025 quarter (Q3FY26); LME aluminium/zinc/copper realisation was up by 8 per cent/12 per cent/13 per cent, sequentially, while INR witnessed another 2 per cent depreciation vs. USD. Though, the volumes are flattish to marginally better and CoP is higher by 1-3 per cent, higher realisation could still supersede other factors leading to strong improvement in EBITDA.

 

Analysts at ICICI Securities believe Vedanta may outperform peers, while Hindalco could be an underperformer on weak Novelis performance (expect low volume due to fire and below $400/tn EBITDA). Nalco to see stable performance (better aluminium realisation covering for fall in alumina), the brokerage firm said.  =====================================  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.