Nifty SmallCap index can break 22-month up trend; MidCap index may tank 12%

The Nifty SmallCap and MidCap indices have plunged up to 7% thus far in 2025 as against a near 2% fall in the Nifty 50 index. Chart shows broader indices on course to test multi-month support levels.

Stock markets in India have started the year 2025 on a dis-appointing note, with the equity benchmark indices - the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty down up to 1.8 per cent so far in January.  The sell-off has been severe in the broader market, with the Nifty MidCap 150 index plunging 6.5 per cent and the SmallCap 250 index down 7.4 per cent thus far. On Monday, as of 12 noon, the Nifty MidCap index was down 2.5 per cent, and the SmallCap down 2.2 per cent as against a 0.9 per cent fall in the Nifty 50 benchmark.  Among individual stocks, Kalyan Jewellers, Paytm, Godrej Industries, CRISIL and Godrej Properties were the major MidCap losers, down 14 - 18 per cent each. They were followed by the likes of Apollo Tyres, Tata Exlsi, PolicyBazaar, Suzlon Energy, Jindal Stainless, MRF and Aurobinda Pharma - down over 10 per cent each.  In the SmallCap space - KEC International, Aditya Birla Real Estate and Piramal Pharma were worst hit, down over 17 per cent each. Inox Wind, Angel One, PCBL Chemical, Sobha, PVR Inox, IFCI, Finolex Industries and CESC were the other significant losers, down over 12 per cent each.    Against this background, here's a technical outlook on the MidCap and SmallCap indices for the likely trend ahead.  Nifty MidCap 150  Current Level: 19,765  Downside Risk: 12%  Support: 19,350; 18,800; 18,500; 18,315  Resistance: 20,144; 20,234; 20,640; 20,940  This week, the Nifty MidCap 150 index is seen trading below its 50-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) for the first time since March 2023. The 50-WMA now stands at 20,234 and is expected to act as an immediate hurdle for the index.  That apart, the Nifty MidCap index is also seen quoting below the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands for the second straight day on the daily scale; implying a bearish trend as long as the index remains below 20,144. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  On the downside, the Nifty MidCap index seems on course to test support around its 50-MMA (Monthly Moving Average) which stands at 18,315; below which a test of 17,530 seems likely. The latter is a major support for the MidCap index as it represents the super trend line on the monthly scale - a key indicator the index has held since November 2020. Interim support for the Nifty MidCap index can be expected around 19,350, 18,800 and 18,500 levels.  In case of a pullback rally, the Nifty MidCap index is expected to face strong resistance in the 20,640 - 20,940 zones.    Nifty SmallCap 250  Current Level: 16,425  Downside Risk: 15.5%  Support: 15,123  Resistance: 16,700; 17,115; 17,530  Mirroring the trend in MidCap index, the Nifty SmallCap 250 index too is seen quoting below the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily scale for the second straight trading session. The chart shows that the near-term bias is likely to remain bearish as long as the index remains below 16,700 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  That apart, the SmallCap index is on the verge of reversing its 22-month up trend shows the weekly chart. The index has respected the weekly super trend line since May 2023. A weekly close below 16,700 shall mark the end of this 22-month long up trend.  Over the coming period, the Nifty SmallCap may seek support around its 20-MMA at 15,123; or fall sharply towards the super trend line on the monthly scale at 13,880 - this implies a downside risk of 15.5 per cent from present levels.  In case of a pullback, the Nifty SmallCap 250 index is expected to counter stiff resistance around 17,115 and 17,530 levels.