NMDC shares fall 5% as investors book profit; should you sell too?

NMDC share price declined on the NSE and BSE on profit booking. Here is how analysts are interpreting the iron ore company's Q1 results, stock outlook

NMDC share price cracked 4.9 per cent on the BSE today, hitting a low of ₹69.02 per share. Profit booking in NMDC shares was witnessed on Thursday, August 14, after the iron ore company reported a strong financial earnings report card for the June 2025 quarter.

 

NMDC share price history

NMDC shares slumped nearly 5 per cent on the BSE today weighed by heavy volumes. At 11:50 AM, NMDC stock was trading 4.4 per cent lower on the stock exchange with 1.48 million shares changing hands in trade. By comparison, 0.9 million shares had, on average, changed hands on the NMDC counter over the past two weeks.

 

Combined with the volume on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), 22.55 million shares, so far, changed hands on both the exchanges.

 

The BSE Sensex index, meanwhile, was quoting 52 points (0.06 per cent) higher at the time of writing this report.

 

NMDC shares have gained 9 per cent on the BSE over the past one month, and 8 per cent in three months. This comes against the Sensex’s over 1 per cent decline over the past month.

 

From its 52-week low level of ₹59.56 per share, touched on April 7, 2025, NMDC stock has bounced 22 per cent till August 13, 2025.    Check List of Q1 results today 

NMDC Q1 results

NMDC reported a revenue increase of 25 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q1FY26, coming at ₹6,739 crore, driven by higher sales volume (up 14 per cent Y-o-Y at 11.5 mt) and stable prices (blended iron ore realisation of ₹5,353 per tonne, up ₹49 per tonne Y-o-Y).

 

The company's Ebitda rose 5.9 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹2,478 crore with Ebitda margin shrinking to 36.8 per cent from 43.2 per cent.

 

NMDC's Q1FY26 net profit stood at ₹1,968 crore, nearly unchanged over last year.

 

That apart, NMDC's Dues outstanding surged ₹160 crore Q-o-Q to ₹8,000 crore, led by a jump in dues from NMDC Steel (up ₹210 crore Q-o-Q), even as RINL dues fell (down ₹0.5 billion Q-o-Q) for iron ore supplies.

 

NMDC shares falling today: should you buy the dip?

 

PL Capital | Accumulate | Target price: ₹80

The management aims to utilise maximum EC limits and produce ~55 mt in FY26. Analysts, though, believe execution will be the key given the monsoon in Karnataka and rising imports by domestic steel players.

 

Further, NMDC raised iron ore prices from August 2025, anticipating sustained demand, which should support Ebitda/t in Q2FY26, it said.

 

"Legacy operations are expected to remain profitable in FY26, and the pellet plant, targeted for completion by FY26-end, should aid performance going forward. We maintain 50/55mt volumes for FY26/27E and expect NMDC to deliver revenue, Ebitda, and PAT CAGR of 20 per cent, 20 per cent, and 17 per cent, respectively," PL Capital said.

 

Nuvama Institutional Equities | Buy | Target: ₹85

 

The brokerage forecasts Q2FY26 Ebitda/tonne at ₹1,800–2,000 led by higher prices (hiked by ₹400/t in August and volume growth of over 10 per cent Y-o-Y).

 

"Receivables from RINL have decreased Q-o-Q while overall receivables shall fall in the coming quarters with NMDC Steel becoming profitable in Q1FY26. All in all, we maintain FY26E/27E Ebitda estimates," Nuvama said.