Nomura keeps Nifty target at 26,140, backs Swiggy, Titan, Alkem as top bets

Nomura has maintained its Nifty target for March 2026 at 26,140, implying a modest upside of 4 per cent from current levels, based on a FY27F earnings per share (EPS) estimate of ₹1,245.

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Nomura;s India equity strategy: Nomura India’s latest equity strategy report highlighted a continued preference for domestic consumption plays and a constructive stance on pharmaceuticals, amid elevated global uncertainties. 

 

The Japan-based brokerage has maintained its Nifty target for March 2026 at 26,140, implying a modest upside of 4 per cent from current levels, based on a FY27F earnings per share (EPS) estimate of ₹1,245.

 

“We retain our March 2026F Nifty target at 26,140 (4 per cent implied upside) based on 21x FY27F EPS estimate of ₹1,245. We see mid-single-digit risk to current consensus earnings estimates,” said Saion Mukherjee of Nomura, in a note dated October 15.

 

In terms of stock recommendations, Nomura has updated its preferred stock portfolio following recent initiations and price movements. Newly added names include Prestige Estates Projects, Swiggy, and Titan. 

 

Within commodities, the brokerage favours cement over metals, reflecting the recent outperformance of steel stocks, adding Ambuja Cements and removing Jindal Steel.  ALSO READ| Nuvama retains Buy on Hyundai India; expects steady growth with EV, hybrids 

 

Other portfolio adjustments include replacing Ather Energy with TVS Motor Company, BPCL with Petronet LNG, and Lodha with Aditya Birla Real Estate (ABREL), based on recent price movements and potential upside. 

 

Also, Nomura has turned constructive on pharmaceuticals, moving from a tactically cautious stance, and added Alkem Laboratories to its preferred stocks. However, no changes were made to its least preferred stock list..

 

Sector-wise, Nomura continues to back companies exposed to the domestic economy, aligning with the government’s policy stance. Preferred sectors include Financials, Consumption (discretionary over staples), Autos, Cement, Pharmaceuticals, EMS, Real Estate, Telecom, and Power. Conversely, the brokerage remains cautious on Capital Goods, Infrastructure, IT Services, Healthcare Services, and Metals.

 

Analysts at Nomura noted that while the Indian market underperformed most global markets over the past year, it delivered a healthy 12.4 per cent CAGR over five years. The brokerage highlights that high starting valuations and a cyclical slowdown in earnings have contributed to the relative underperformance.   ALSO READ| Motilal Oswal, Nuvama raise target on HDFC AMC post Q2; all details here

 

A modest recovery in FY27F is expected, though the recent consumption stimulus is likely to have only a short-term, selective impact due to weak household sentiment, low savings, and subdued job and wage growth, Nomura analysts opined.

 

Valuations are supported by strong domestic inflows and a low equity risk premium, though the premium is not compelling enough to attract strong foreign institutional inflows near term. 

 

Nomura also flagged the risk of a potential rise in the risk premium in 2025, which has not materialised so far but remains a key market risk.

 

“We have been concerned about a flare-up in the risk premium in 2025 (Outlook 2025), but that hasn’t played out, and is not in our base case. However, this remains a risk, in our view,” analysts at Nomura said.