Nuvama retains Buy on Hyundai India; expects steady growth with EV, hybrids

Hyundai Motor India (HMI) continues to impress on operational efficiency, with a 100 per cent success rate in recovering product development costs within four years — an industry-best metric, according to analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities. They believe this record, coupled with a strong product pipeline of 26 new models and refreshes by FY30E, positions the automaker for steady growth.

 

Nuvama has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Hyundai Motor India shares with a target price of ₹3,200, valuing the stock at 33x Sep-27E core EPS plus ₹119 per share in cash. The brokerage expects revenue and EPS to clock CAGRs of 10 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, over FY25–28E, with an average RoIC of 59 per cent.

 

 

Analysts Raghunandhan N L, Manav Shah, and Rahul Kumar — who attended Hyundai’s recent analyst meet — said the company’s upcoming product pipeline includes seven new nameplates among the 26 models planned by FY30E. The line-up will feature new MPVs and off-road SUVs as part of Hyundai’s strategy to meet CAFÉ 3 norms through a diversified powertrain mix.

 

By FY30, HMI’s portfolio is projected to comprise 13 ICE, five EV, eight hybrid, and six CNG models. The company is targeting a domestic volume CAGR of 7 per cent over FY25–30E, outpacing the industry’s 5 per cent growth projection. Exports are expected to rise from 27 per cent of volumes in H1FY26 to around 30 per cent by FY30E. Local sourcing in ICE models is likely to improve from 82 per cent to 90 per cent over the same period.

 

Management has also outlined a ₹450-billion capex plan for FY26–30E, encompassing product development, R&D, capacity enhancement, and modernisation. 

Turbocharged product strategy

According to Nuvama, Hyundai’s 26-model pipeline by FY30E includes seven new nameplates, six full-model changes, six derivatives, and seven facelifts or upgrades. The company’s multi-powertrain approach — spanning 13 ICE, five EV, eight hybrid, and six CNG models — reflects a sharp focus on clean mobility.

 

EVs are expected to account for 17 per cent of HMI’s portfolio by FY30E, up from 1 per cent in FY25. The share of CNG vehicles is projected to rise to 20 per cent (from 13 per cent), and hybrids to 16 per cent (from zero currently), while the share of petrol and diesel vehicles could decline to 47 per cent from 86 per cent.

 

The automaker plans to launch multiple hybrids across compact-to-premium segments. In the near term, a new Venue SUV equipped with Level 2 ADAS, a 12.3-inch display, OTA updates, and a reinforced body structure is expected in November 2025. The Genesis luxury brand is also slated for launch in India by 2027E.  ALSO READ| Religare recommends 3 stocks to buy today; suggests Nifty trading strategy

Upbeat growth outlook

Nuvama said Hyundai’s management expects revenue CAGR of over 8 per cent during FY25–30E, supported by domestic volume growth of 7 per cent — higher than the industry’s expected 5 per cent. Growth drivers include new product introductions, network expansion, and captive finance initiatives.

 

“Led by network expansion, Hyundai Motor India is targeting 30 per cent rural sales contribution (versus 23 per cent in H1FY26) and 15 per cent network share (versus 13 per cent in September 2025) by FY30E. Hyundai Capital (the financing arm) is also expanding into India to support wholesales in phase 1 (Q2FY26), retails in phase 2, and ‘beyond automotive’ in phase 3,” the analysts said.

 

Export contribution is projected to rise from 27 per cent in H1FY26 to 30 per cent in FY30E, led by higher shipments to the Middle East and Africa (50 per cent), Central and South America (40 per cent), and Asia Pacific (10 per cent).

 

Ebitda margins are expected to remain in double digits (11–14 per cent), supported by scale efficiencies and localisation, despite cost headwinds. “Localisation for ICE components is expected to improve from 82 per cent in FY25 to 90 per cent by FY30E,” the analysts added.