SAIL soars 8% on heavy volumes, hits 52-week high. Should you buy or hold?

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Share price of Steel Authority of India (SAIL) today

 

Shares of Steel Authority of India (SAIL) hit a 52-week high of ₹143.2, as they rallied 8 per cent on the BSE in Wednesday’s intra-day trade amid heavy volumes ahead of the September quarter (Q2) earnings today.

 

The average trading volume at the counter jumped over five-fold. Till 10:38 AM; a combined 90.32 million equity shares representing 2.2 per cent of total equity of SAIL changed hands on the NSE and BSE.

 

The stock price of the state-owned steel company surpassed its previous high of ₹139.95 touched on July 3, 2025. In the past two trading days, it has surged 10 per cent.

 

What's driving SAIL stock price?

 

SAIL is scheduled to announce its unaudited financial results today for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2025 (Q2FY26).

 

SAIL being one of the largest integrated steel manufacturers domestically, its established market position and serving as a critical supplier for speciality steels required in government projects, defence projects and other critical projects of the government.

 

After three consecutive years of contraction, a broad-based recovery, excluding China, is anticipated in 2025, with Global steel demand expected to grow by 1.2 per cent to 1,772 million tonne (MT), according to the World Steel Association (WSA). 

 

Rising imports at predatory prices and dumping concerns prompted the Government of India to impose a 12 per cent provisional safeguard duty in April, 2025 on Flat Steel imports for a period of 200 days. This timely measure helped lift domestic steel prices, which had fallen to a three-year low during the fiscal, impacting profitability across the industry, SAIL said in its FY25 annual report.

 

Meanwhile, SAIL continues to have 100 per cent iron ore security (operational across Jharkhand, Odisha and Chhattisgarh withholding significant iron ore reserves) with access to its captive mines which are expected to be strengthened further as the expansion plan from existing crude steel capacity of ~20 million tonne per annum to~35 million tonne per annum by the end of FY32. Robust demand in the domestic market and infrastructural projects has resulted into healthy scale of operations, leading the company to operate at near full capacity, according to CARE Ratings.

 

Going forward, while raw material prices are expected to continue to remain volatile, CareEdge Ratings Limited (Care Ratings) believes that domestic steel players are better placed to partially pass on any increase in the raw material prices while being protected by way of safeguard duty and record higher saleable steel volumes owing to strong domestic demand.

 

Meanwhile, robust domestic demand has resulted in a healthy scale of operations, allowing the SAIL to operate at near full capacity. India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) expects FY26 revenues to be supported by an uptick in volumes from various debottlenecking projects, supported by robust domestic demand fundamentals.

 

InCred Equities upgrades SAIL’s rating to ‘ADD’ with target price of ₹158

 

Analysts at InCred Equities upgraded SAIL’s rating to ADD (from REDUCE), with a revised target price of ₹158 (₹77 earlier). Although the brokerage firm said they continue to believe that the global steel industry lacks structural pricing power, the current wave of protectionism across key markets—especially in India, Europe, and the US—has removed the downside risk to earnings. 

 

Steel prices are unlikely to fall meaningfully, and the modest recovery in global demand, led by Europe, should support a stable pricing environment. In this setting, SAIL stands out as a tactical play on protectionist stability rather than a cyclical upswing.

 

Analysts estimate SAIL’s EBITDA/t to remain steady at ₹7,000–8,000 over FY24–26F, with EPS growing around 8 per cent annually. The valuation remains reasonable at ~1x P/BV, close to the long-term average, and below peak-cycle multiples. Given its strong balance sheet, declining leverage, and policy-driven insulation, SAIL offers limited downside and a visible near-term upside, the brokerage firm said.