Sensex likely to surpass 117,000 by FY30-end on rapid growth: Analysis

Stocks will rise at a compound annual growth rate of at least 7 per cent over the long-term to unpreced­ented levels as breakneck economic expansion boosts corporate earnings and margins. 
 

The Sensex may surge about 45 per cent past 117,000 by theend of the financial year 2030 while the Nifty will climb to 35,324 from around 24,700 now, an analysis based on historical correlations between aggregate economic output and market capitalisation (mcap) shows.
 

Mcap has surged to $5 trillion from $4.2 trillion at the end of last year compared to the economic output which is estimated to reach $3.8 trillion in 2024.

 

Output has traditionally had a high explanatory power (about 87 per cent) when the nation’s aggregate mcap is decomposed. The levels estimated for the Sensex and the Nifty assume that India’s economy will continue to be the fastest-growing among the major markets.
 

S&P Global forecasts that the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) will double to $7.5 trillion by the end of 2030. In December last year, the rating firm estimated that India’s rapid growth — driven by its growing middle class, rising consumer spending, and digital transformation — would put GDP on track to exceed Japan by by 2030.             

That would make it the second-biggest economy in the Asia-Pacific region. Some of that optimism has been on display recently. Since the results of the national election is known, the Sensex has climbed some 12 per cent.