Silver hits Rs 300,000/kg on MCX; analysts see more upside amid volatility

Silver moving through the $90/oz mark, believes Nigel Green, chief executive officer of deVere Group, a global consulting firm that has $14 billion in AUM, marks a decisive shift in market psycology

Silver prices gained over 5 per cent in intraday trade to hit Rs 3-lakh per kilogram (kg) on the MCX on Monday, rallying nearly 28 per cent thus far in calendar year 2026 (CY26). In CY25, silver had surged 216.7 per cent and was among the best performing asset class.

 

In the international markets, silver prices surged nearly 4 per cent to cross the $93.5 an ounce (oz) mark on Monday, rallying nearly 196 per cent in the last one year, data shows.

 

Despite the sharp run, analysts remain bullish on the road ahead and suggest investors buy the metal on a decline from a long-term perspective.

 

Silver moving through the $90/oz mark, believes Nigel Green, chief executive officer of deVere Group, a global consulting firm that has $14 billion in assets under management (AUM), marks a decisive shift in market psychology.  

 

Investors, he said, are responding to a combination of mounting political pressure on the US central bank, rising rate-cut expectations, escalating geopolitical tensions, and a pivotal US Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Geopolitics, according to him, adds further fuel. Escalating tension involving Iran, for example, heightens anxiety across energy markets and global security channels, lifting volatility and driving renewed demand for safe-haven assets. 

 

“Silver has significant room to run. Structural demand, constrained supply, and a global investment climate shaped by policy uncertainty point to far higher prices. Our projection places silver at $200/oz by the end of this year, and that outlook reflects market dynamics already in motion. Volatility comes with any major repricing, and sharp swings should be expected. Yet direction matters more than short-term noise," Green said.

 

As an investment strategy, G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research suggests investors buy silver on a dip and hold for the long term. He expects the prices to see a gradual rise in CY26 amid intermittent corrections, which can be bought into. 

 

“The rally (in silver) started in 2025 and is beyond imagination. A correction of 10 – 20 per cent can happen in the short-to-medium term that can be bought into. There have been reports of Indian households also encashing on the silver price surge and I expect a lot of silver resale to happen in the coming months that can keep prices in check. Miners, too, could increase silver production that will help in stemming the rise. Over the next six months, prices can rise another 10 per cent amid volatility,” he said. 

 

 

Tightness in the London market and extreme backwardation on the CME futures markets, according to James Steel, Chief Precious Metals Analyst at HSBC, underscore the near-term shortage of deliverable silver. This, he believes, may not be resolved until later in 2026. 

 

The likelihood of a soft USD, as forecast by HSBC FX Research, he believes can support silver on downswings. Debate over future Fed rate cuts, Fed independence, and geopolitical risks, however, remain price supportive. 

 

“While we regard prices as fundamentally overvalued, we expect conditions to remain volatile, with likely upside spikes, until near-term tightness is alleviated. Industrial demand is weakening as price-related resistance lowers purchases. Large bar demand should rise, based on institutional purchases. Coin and small bar demand may also recover but at a modest pace as high prices crimp demand. Jewellery demand will be especially weak, though aided by crossover buying from gold. Exchange-traded funds are accumulating at a robust pace and may continue to do so,” he wrote in a recent note.