Swiggy Q3 preview: Analysts expect loss to widen QoQ, revenue may rise 10%

Food delivery platform Swiggy is all set to release its third quarter (Q3) results for financial year 2024-25 (FY25) on Wednesday, February 5, 2025.

 

Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate the Q3 revenue of Swiggy to grow 9.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), on an average, to Rs 3,962.85 crore as compared to Rs 3,602.95 crore in Q2FY25. The stock was listed on bourses on November 13, 2024.

 

Further, Swiggy is expected to widen its net loss Q-o-Q in Q3FY25 to Rs 704.05 crore, on average, as compared to a loss of Rs 623 crore in Q2FY25.

 

Analysts and investors will keep an eye on Instamart’s gross order value (GOV) and average order value (AOV) growth, dark store additions, and margins. 

Here's how brokerages expect Swiggy to fare in Q3:

Motilal Oswal: The GOV for food delivery/quick commerce (FD/QC) businesses is likely to achieve 20 per cent/100 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth, with take rates of 22 per cent/14 per cent, respectively, driving overall revenue growth of 8 per cent Q-o-Q in Q3FY25.

 

A take rate is the percentage of revenue that a platform takes as a commission from each transaction facilitated on its platform.  ALSO READ: Britannia's Q3 PAT likely to slip 5% YoY; margins may contract: Analysts

 

Motilal Oswal pegs Swiggy's Q3 revenue at Rs 3,891 crore as compared to Rs 3,604.4 crore in Q2.

 

Meanwhile, analysts at Motilal Oswal anticipate food delivery's adjusted Ebitda, as a percentage of GOV, to improve 20 basis points (bps) Q-o-Q to 1.8 per cent. Instamart is projected to report a -2.2 per cent contribution margin and a -10 per cent adjusted Ebitda margin in Q3.  

 

JM Financial: Analysts at JM Financial forecast sequential GOV growth of 3.5 per cent as compared to 19.3 per cent Y-o-Y in the food delivery business. They expect take-rates to expand to 22.3 per cent in Q3FY25 as compared to 21.9 per cent in Q2FY25. Adjusted Ebitda margin (as per cent of GOV) expansion is likely to be 40 bps sequentially.

 

The brokerage expects consolidated adjusted Ebitda in Q3 at Rs 431.2 crore as compared to Rs 340.3 crore in Q2. The consolidated adjusted Ebitda margin is likely at -10.7 per cent as compared to -9.5 per cent in Q2. 

 

For Instamart, they expect sequential GOV growth of 18.2 per cent led by a robust increase of 13 per cent in order volumes. Take rates are likely to improve to 14.9 per cent in Q3 from 14.5 per cent in Q2. They see contribution margin at -3.6 per cent (as per cent of GOV) as against -1.9 per cent in Q2.

 

At a consolidated level, reported Ebitda/PAT are anticipated to be at a loss of Rs 673 crore/ Rs 708 crore, respectively, as against a loss of Rs 554 crore/Rs 623 crore in Q2.