COP31 and the world's 35x35 plan

Raising electricity's share in energy consumption to 35 per cent by 2035 may look attractive. But is it the right ambition for India?

The next United Nations-mandated climate conference, to be held this month in Antalya, will begin on an anxious note.

 

The latest Emissions Gap Report 2026 of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) confirms that global emissions have reached a record high of 58 gigatonnes in 2025 and are still rising. Even if all new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) promised by countries are fully implemented, global emissions will fall by a mere 5-8 per cent by 2030, compared with the 2025 level. For a pathway consistent with the 1.5-degree climate goal, global emissions need to fall by over 43 per cent compared with 2019 levels and 18 per cent compared with 2025 levels. The scenario is, therefore, grim.

 

Given that NDCs were revised only last year and no further negotiations on the new set of NDCs are on the cards until the next global stocktake in 2028, can the Conference of the Parties (COP31) do anything to buck this trend? More specifically, will India be adversely affected by any action that it may consider?

 

One such idea that is doing the rounds in anticipation of COP31 is raising the share of electricity in global energy consumption to 35 per cent by 2035.

 

The goal looks attractive and benign because electrification powered by renewables can help reduce emissions significantly. The current global electrification level reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA) is 23 per cent. Moreover, the share of renewable energy, excluding nuclear, in the global electricity generation mix is nearly 34 per cent, and, in terms of capacity, still higher at 49.5 per cent. So, the goal appears to be within reach.

 

However, there is more to it than meets the eye. Both electrification and renewable energy capacity additions vary widely at global and national levels. In India, for example, electricity’s share of final energy consumption is around 23 per cent. Similarly, the share of renewable energy in the electricity generation mix is around 26 per cent, including large hydro, though its share in terms of overall capacity has risen to over 50 per cent.

 

As admitted by the International Renewable Energy Agency, the share of renewable energy in the electricity generation mix consistently lags the share of renewable energy in capacity because of lower capacity factors of solar and wind. Rapidly increasing energy demand relative to supply further widens this gap in countries like India. Even in developing economies where the variable cost of solar and wind energy has fallen below that of coal-fired electricity, coal continues to meet over 70 per cent of the final energy consumption because of this reason.

 

Given this reality, how should India look at the 35x35 electricity goal? A suitable response may depend on four factors.

 

One, electricity’s share of final energy consumption is contingent upon how energy demand is met in the future. Demand for energy originates not only in the power sector, where renewable energy is dominant, but also in industry and the transport sector, where fossil fuels rule the roost. Electricity growth in these sectors will depend on how quickly and to what extent alternative technologies and fuels, such as green hydrogen, biofuels and electric batteries, can be introduced.

 

Two, India’s economic growth requires an increase in energy consumption, 72 per cent of which is currently met by fossil fuels. Under the existing policy scenario, electricity’s share in India’s energy consumption may rise to about 24 per cent by 2035, but a further rise may not be linear until India’s emissions peak. This would depend on the dynamics of Viksit Bharat and cannot be predicted with certainty at this stage.

 

Three, even in the power sector, where renewable energy is rising in the generation mix, further growth is dependent on critical investments in transmission and energy storage. Investments in renewable energy have no doubt accelerated since 2023, when about 120 countries pledged to triple renewable energy capacity. But global capacity is still half of the projected goal of 11,000 Gw by 2030, mainly because transmission and storage have not kept pace.

 

Four, neither electrification nor renewable energy can expand in the energy system in the absence of dedicated and planned public and private investments in renewable energy infrastructure. Current attention is focused on capacity creation and not on the development of energy storage infrastructure or alternative fuels at scale. Global green finance, being risk-averse and aligned with fossil fuel phase-out policies, is not a reliable partner for planned investments of this nature.

 

As India is largely dependent on domestic resources to finance the transformation of critical energy infrastructure, it must decide on the pace of its transformation in a manner consistent with the goals of Viksit Bharat and net zero. Raising the share of renewable energy in the electricity generation mix could be a more pragmatic near-term goal than raising electrification’s share in energy consumption.

The writer is distinguished fellow at Teri and a former climate negotiator