Global climate failure: COP30 must push developed nations on mitigation

At COP 30 this November, the primary goal must be to increase pressure on developed countries to move faster and more credibly on climate mitigation

In November this year, the 30th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place in Belem, in the Amazonian part of Brazil. The UN Climate Convention is crucial because the mitigation of climate change risks cannot be done sufficiently by any country on its own. The accumulation of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is inherently global in its impact and requires global cooperation for mitigation.

 

As originally conceived, the UNFCCC placed the primary responsibility for climate mitigation action on developed countries (more formally Annex 1 countries in UNFCCC). This has changed. The developed countries have moved against the idea of “common but differentiated responsibilities” that is explicitly a part of the UNFCCC (Article 3 Part 1). They have also moved away from negotiated formal commitments and now argue for voluntary national commitments for all countries, whether developed or developing. That is what is reflected in the agreement at the 2015 meeting of the COP in Paris. This has placed developing countries, particularly China and India, at the centre of global action on climate mitigation.

 

China, India, and other developing countries have accepted responsibilities for actions not envisaged in the original UNFCCC and are already working to make their growth objectives less dependent on fossil fuels. The developed countries have moved in the opposite direction and diluted their commitment that is implicit in their historical responsibility for carbon accumulation in the atmosphere, which is the main cause of climate change.

 

The 2015 Paris Agreement set a goal to keep global temperature increases well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit the rise to 1.5°C. The unfortunate reality is that the actual actions of countries have made not just the 1.5°C target, but even the 2°C limit less unlikely.

 

According to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024, the present commitments made by countries will only keep the global temperature rise in a range of 2.6-2.8°C. It also points out that policies currently in place are insufficient to meet even these commitments, and if no additional action is implemented, the world could experience a temperature rise of 3.1°C.

 

As of 2024, emissions have not deviated substantially from the high end emissions scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  On this basis, a recent Asian Development Bank report states that climate change could reduce developing Asia and the Pacific’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 17 per cent by 2070, and India’s GDP could fall by 24.7 per cent if the high-end scenario is not avoided.

 

This fear of temperature increase is not just about the long-term future. According to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline. A substantial rise in the average global temperature is not just a distant threat but a more immediate one. This year has seen a spate of heat waves in Europe and North America. There is now a growing fear of climate change induced tipping points that can trigger a large shift in temperature, sea-level rise and weather uncertainties.

 

We need much more effective cooperative action on climate risks than what is being promised now. What matters most is the climate change management strategy of the six major emitters who account for 74 per cent of the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide as of 2023. These six are the United States, the European Union (including the United Kingdom), China, Russia, Japan, and India, ranked in order of their  cumulative carbon emissions up to 2023.

 

The developed countries have a tendency to shift emphasis from cumulative to current rate of emissions, which have declined in the US, Europe, and Japan since 1995, and increased in China, Russia and India. However, if one focuses attention on current emissions relative to population then the per capita emissions of CO2 in the developed states in 2023 were 14.3 tonnes in the US, 12.5 tonnes in Russia, 7.9 tonnes in Japan, and 5.4 tonnes in the EU. Against this, China does look a major emitter with its 2023 per capita emissions of 8.4 tonnes of CO2; but India’s per capita emissions in 2023 were only 2.1 tonnes of CO2.

 

The US is perhaps the most serious threat. It was a sceptic even during the negotiations in the 1990s, often voicing doubts about human responsibility for observed temperature increases, a responsibility that is now widely accepted. This negative attitude did change later when the US under Barack Obama joined the Paris agreement and Joe Biden introduced substantial action on climate mitigation with incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act.

 

This has worsened with the actions taken by Donald Trump. He withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement. His “big, beautiful bill” reversed actions undertaken by the previous administration to promote carbon emission reduction. This will reduce the US’ promised emission cuts by 2030 from 40 per cent to just 3 per cent — an increase of about 2 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2030 relative to the original pledge. Clearly, the prospects for climate change have become even worse than the pessimistic forecasts presented above suggest.

 

Climate change is potentially the most dangerous threat to the future of virtually all societies and economies, a threat which is getting worse with the inadequacy of public policies in most countries on meeting this challenge. This deteriorating situation in government commitments on climate change management must be addressed at the COP 30 in November. The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has perhaps undone the compromises reached 10 years ago between developed and developing countries.

 

Brazil and India, whose per capita CO₂ emissions in 2023 were just 2.3 and 2.1 tonnes, respectively, can join forces with other large low-emitter developing countries, such as Indonesia and Egypt, to reassert the importance of the “common but differentiated responsibilities” principle of the UNFCCC. Hence, the primary goal of the COP 30 meeting this November must be to raise the pressure on developed countries to move faster and more credibly in their action on climate change mitigation.

 

(Next month, I will discuss the diplomatic and development strategies required for the worsening climate condition)

 

desaind@icloud.com