India's distant promises: Clarity needed for Viksit Bharat, Net Zero goals

Aspirations, backed by conviction, motivate an individual, a company, or a nation to achieve progress and growth. A corporation’s vision and mission documents depict its aspirations. As for nations, many aspirations are embedded in various public documents, including some core ones in their constitutions. In addition, from time to time, the political leadership sets various aspirational goals, guided by ideology, expediency, and other commitments.

 

This article is about the two most ambitious long-term declarations made by the present political leadership in India: Viksit Bharat by 2047 and Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070.  The paths to realise these two goals crisscross in many ways, and a harmonious approach is essential to reach the destination. The question is  — do we have sufficient clarity about what exactly is aimed to be achieved, as well as how it would be achieved?

 

Let’s begin with the ambition of having a Viksit Bharat by 2047.

 

Vikas, or development, is an amorphous term with varying connotations. What exactly is proposed to be achieved? The commonly available literature focuses on how the country could possibly exit the lower middle-income trap and move its per capita income up the ladder, from lower-middle to higher-middle levels, according to the World Bank methodology.

 

While this should definitely be aimed at, is it enough? What about the other parameters, some quantifiable and the others not quite so, including the ones relating to betterment of social and environmental conditions, viz. the Human Development Index ranking, reducing income inequality (Gini coefficient or some other measure), improving infrastructure, including in cities, and containing environmental damage? Has there been enough public consultation on the subject to come to a well-reasoned conclusion?

 

The government needs to clearly list out all the desired parameters to be covered under the Viksit Bharat goal, assign appropriate weight to each of them, and set numerical targets wherever applicable. The sectoral policies and the road map can be properly thought through and planned only once there is clarity on this.

 

As for Net Zero emissions, the United Nations defines it as “cutting carbon emissions to a small amount of residual emissions that can be absorbed and durably stored by nature and other carbon dioxide removal measures, leaving zero in the atmosphere.”

 

Even the most optimistic proponents would agree that achieving Net Zero for India, even by 2070, is a gigantic uphill task. At present, India is the third-largest annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter in the world. GHG emissions peaked some time ago in most developed countries. Even in China, they have reportedly peaked recently or are likely to peak this year. India’s story is quite different. Taking into account our enormous development requirements, dependence on fossil fuels, and the level of anthropogenic activities, emissions here are not likely to peak anytime in the foreseeable future. The road map to, and the model for, Viksit Bharat by 2047 will necessarily have to take into account the environmental constraints, making the task even more challenging.

 

The years 2047 and 2070 are far away, and one could easily lose focus on these goals. As Keynes famously said, “…in the long run, we are all dead.” More importantly, there will be many different governments between now and 2047/2070. The present government should build a national consensus, across party lines, on the parameters to be covered under these goals, and the way forward should be properly documented. To show its seriousness in meeting these aspirations, the government has to come out with pragmatic and credible plans, which should be available in the public domain. This is also required to enable corrective action as and when needed.

 

Unlike the rather ambiguous term Vikas, GHG emissions, except perhaps for Scope 3 emissions and carbon sequestration potential, can fortunately be measured in reasonably quantifiable terms using internationally accepted norms and appropriate assumptions. Emission levels are also monitored at meetings of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP), where different countries make reduction commitments in the form of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from time to time.

 

For instance, at present, India has a commitment to reduce the emission intensity of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 45 per cent by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. Many experts believe that this is easily achievable even before the deadline. If that is the case, why not set higher targets for ourselves, beyond the NDC commitment, keeping in sight our ultimate goal of Net Zero by 2070?

 

What exactly is the government’s game plan to reduce GHG emissions in the medium to long run? How much of it will be achieved through a carbon pricing mechanism —viz. through carbon taxes, and fixing GHG emission targets for different obligated entities, particularly in the hard-to-abate sectors, combined with a robust carbon credit trading mechanism? How much is projected to be achieved through mandates, which may or may not be explicitly guided by carbon pricing principle — viz prescribing renewables to replace fossil fuels, improving energy efficiency, incentivising electric vehicle usage, improvement in agriculture practices, afforestation, carbon sequestration, and the like? Taking a rational view on these matters requires wide stakeholder consultations, deep data analysis, the use of technological tools, and expert advice.

 

Let the period up to 2047/2070 be divided in blocks of, say, five years (short term) and 10 years (medium term), and the actual achievements compared to the targets under agreed parameters for both goals be monitored periodically through third-party MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification) experts of repute, with the reports made public.

 

Viksit Bharat by 2047 and Net Zero by 2070 ambitions are highly desirable goals and the need of the hour. The difficult part is to have clarity about the road map. 

 

The author is a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, former chairman of Sebi, and a former IAS officer.