Pahalgam attack: Short-term impact of India-Pak actions not too significant

After the terrorist attacks on tourists at Pahalgam in Kashmir, several diplomatic and economic measures have been taken by India and Pakistan with intent to hurt the other. In the short run, these steps may cause very little easily bearable pain

Pakistan has barred all Indian-registered airlines and aircraft owned or leased by Indian operators from entering its airspace.  Indigo, Air India and SpiceJet will now have to take a longer route from north Indian airports to the west incurring more costs. For a while, they can absorb the costs and later, even pass on some burden to the domestic travelers. The exporters and importers can use foreign-owned airlines, which are not affected and so, may not pay higher freight costs.

  The closure of the Attari-Wagah land border will affect movement of goods and natural persons but the impact will be negligible. In 2023, tourist arrivals from Pakistan were less than 30,000. Their absence may not hurt the tourist industry much. The Sikhs will miss going to Nankana Saheb, the birth place of Guru Nanak in Pakistan. In 2023-24, India imported goods worth $2.88 million (0.0004 per cent of our total imports) and exported goods worth $1,189 million (0.2730 per cent of our total exports).    

  The bilateral agreements now suspended include cooperation and mutual assistance in Customs matters, diversification and enhancement of trade, drug demand reduction, prevention of illicit trafficking in narcotic drugs, psychotropic substances and precursor chemicals and related matters, communication link between Indian coast guard and Pakistan maritime security agency, rail communications, air services, telecommunications, shipping services, exchange of postal articles, visa for visit to religious shrines, utilisation of the waters of Indus system of rivers, trade payments mechanisms, certain financial issues and avoidance of double taxation of income. Suspension of these agreements is unlikely to hurt either country very much, at least in the near future.

  Generally, political and economic measures do not bring about significant changes in policy or behaviour unless they sting the other party enough. China and the United States are engaged in a trade war that hurts both. So, commercial interests are likely to bring both to the negotiating table. South Africa changed its apartheid policy as the political and economic isolation over a long period caused enough humiliation for the ruling elite. Sanctions hit Russia but not enough, as its friends helped it cope with economic difficulties and keep its war against Ukraine going. The steps taken by India and Pakistan so far are pinpricks they can easily live with.

  Policy or behavioral changes are unlikely to come about unless the pain caused exceeds a certain limit, which can vary for different people in different contexts. In the trade war, China is betting on a lower threshold of pain in the United States.  Pakistan is hoping that its people will opt to bear more pain inflicted by India, rather than yield. In India, the emotions are running high and calls for quick retribution against Pakistan are very loud. The surgical strikes in 2018 and Balakot airstrikes in 2019 have raised expectations. So, India is considering harsh steps to assuage the hurt feelings and cool the tempers at home.  With no surprise element, any military action can risk escalation of hostilities. Sustained use of soft power over a period of time may help.  

  Email : tncrajagopalan@gmail.com