Politics for nuclear winter

Opposition parties know better than most what they are up against. Much of the talk among them is more about where they could limit Modi, rather than having him voted out of power

As the combatants ready their manifestos for the 2024 campaign, the first set of opinion polls is with us. I understand the scepticism about news TV channels and the “so what else would you expect from these guys” view among those who support the Bharatiya Janata Party‘s (BJP’s) rivals, but some data is better than data-free analysis.

Left to us journalists and pundits who predict poll outcomes after talking at a few dhabas and with three taxi drivers, we could conveniently give victory to our own favourites and then go to sleep happily. If the results are different, there are always the electronic voting machines to blame.

The fact is, you do not even need any pollsters to tell you the BJP is way ahead in this contest. Even as the Opposition’s ambitious INDIA bloc has struggled to maintain cohesion, the BJP has set about repairing and rebuilding the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The passion of the partisan aside, much of the talk within the Opposition parties is about where they could limit Narendra Modi rather than having him voted out of power.

That’s the state of play at this point in time, although the Opposition believes the revelations about the electoral bonds have put some wind in its sails. The idea of the BJP’s “washing machine” is a campaign pitch with some oomph. Is it powerful enough to turn the Opposition’s fortunes? Most Opposition leaders would still look at the picture more soberly. It is about how to “limit” Mr Modi to a “reasonable” number.

An insight into the Opposition thinking came in a conversation with the leader of one Opposition party across the aisle on an IndiGo flight early January. The third-generation dynast has inherited a party with a solid caste-based vote bank, albeit in a limited geography. I asked how he looked at the prospects, and whether he believed his caste’s vote bank would survive Mr Modi’s pull.

The caste vote bank may be generally safe, he said, but when people go out to vote in the Lok Sabha elections, they will see only one choice. “How do you convince them there’s an alternative?” he asked. His party (and the Opposition), he said, was struggling to find an issue that brings a critical mass of people out in the streets. For example, if you raise the Agniveer scheme, only those affected will come to protest. The rest of the voters will be indifferent.

“What’s the solution then? Has your three-generation politics come to an end?” I asked.

“Well,” he said, “let’s see it like we are in a nuclear winter. All we can do is survive until it thaws. In politics, that would mean preserving your caste vote bank, winning at least a few seats and conserve your resources. Live long enough until times change.”

Prescient, I thought, and very wise too. Except, just days after this conversation, he left the INDIA bloc and joined the NDA. He probably chose this as a way of dealing with his nuclear winter. At least when and if things change, he will still be in the ring, and up on his feet and weigh new options.

With self-preservation or surviving to fight another day being the topmost thought on the minds of the Opposition parties, each one faces different challenges. For some, like Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, their state governments would be destabilised by any addition to the BJP’s 2019 tally of seats.

The currently embattled Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) would look to make a bigger statement in Delhi than the wipeout of 2019. For the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party faction, a relative success is essential for survival. For Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and Lalu/Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), a 2019-like performance will make their dream of returning to power in their states that much more improbable.

These parties also have limited avenues for funds. Where they aren’t in power, the taps have remained dry for years and the savings running out. Those that still rule a state and can “persuade” moneyed people to pay have the “agencies” on their tail. This would scare their prospective donors even more.

All this is about one-state parties. Or maybe one and a half states in the case of AAP. For the Congress, the challenge is of a different order. Of late, it has struggled to maintain cohesion. Between 2014 and 2019, its only achievement was maintaining that rock-solid vote percentage of just about 20 per cent. But this does not make enough seats for it to even cross the threshold in the Lok Sabha to get the formal leader of the Opposition status. What is the number it should target to convince its supporters and adversaries that it is a genuine challenger for the future?

The hundred-seat mark would be an interesting thought and can alter Indian politics. But is it realistic? I understand if the Congress officially contests any suggestion other than the idea that it is leading INDIA to a majority, but its leaders are experienced, having tasted victory and defeat. They’d believe that any substantive improvement, any number past 80 seats, would put it on a great footing. This is especially so with the Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections to follow soon after.

The results on June 4 will set the momentum for elections in these important states. The BJP faces challenges in each of the three. A Congress tally of 80-plus now would give its allies in Jharkhand and Maharashtra strength. If it fails to reach even that mark, however, it risks losing its pre-eminence in an Opposition alliance as its natural leader. A third disaster in a row would mean an upheaval within the party and definitely persuade the other BJP rivals to look for alternatives. Some may also decide to take the cue from my fellow traveller to escape the nuclear winter.

Why, then, is the BJP looking so frantic? Why is Mr Modi campaigning as if he is trying to win power for the first time — as in 2014? Why this flurry of raids and arrests of Opposition leaders, even a serving chief minister? Why does the party look so worried if it is indeed in such a good place in this campaign?

Good questions, and we will explore some answers. The first is that it is simply the nature of the Modi-Shah BJP. For them, every election is like their life depends on it. 

The second, as we wrote in a National Interest four Saturdays ago, Mr Modi is now campaigning not just for 2024 but for 2029. What works better for him in that quest than to destroy the Opposition as comprehensively as possible, leaving the survivors to contemplate their future? The Opposition, especially the Congress, is right to fear a one-man/one-party/one ideology domination of the kind not seen in India yet. And if they don’t like it, they have to convince enough of the voters that this isn’t good for Indian democracy. There isn’t much time left.

By special arrangement with ThePrint