US exit from COP 30 puts onus on EU, China, India to drive climate action

The United States’ (US’) abstention from the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP 30) was only a follow-up to its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. A few months ago, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decided to undertake a formal review of its “endangerment findings,” thereby even questioning the scientific basis of climate change. The EPA action has serious implications for the US government-supported research programmes and will have an adverse impact on the development of corresponding action plans.

 

Among the major contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the European Union (EU) adopted the “Green Deal” and the “Fit for 55” package in 2019 and 2021, respectively. It plans to reduce its emissions by 55 per cent by 2030 to meet its Paris commitments, eventually achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, Donald Trump’s second term in the White House has put the EU’s plans under severe strain.

 

According to the “new deal” forced upon it, the EU must take charge of its security, ensure better political integration in the face of new challenges within, and build strong economic and strategic relationships outside to ensure its own sustainability. The severance from cheap Russian gas and oil has already burdened it with seeking costlier energy resources from elsewhere while it transitions to greater use of renewable resources.

 

The US’ demand that Nato members increase their defence budgets to 3 per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP) will make the EU’s task of meeting its climate targets tougher. Increasing its defence expenditure from 1.9 per cent (2024) to 3 per cent of GDP would put a significant burden on the EU members’ budgets.

 

Germany has just relaxed its statutory-mandated limit of structural fiscal deficit of 0.35 per cent of GDP to make this defence expenditure possible. Greece, Italy, and France were having unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratios in 2024, indicating severe fiscal stress. Given the volatile geopolitical situation in Europe and the US showing indifference to its Nato commitment with respect to the Ukraine conflict and demanding Nato members share an equal burden of security arrangements, the EU’s chances of meeting its climate targets seem uncertain.

 

China, (highest GHG emitter), has not given any absolute reduction commitment under the Paris Agreement. China’s updated nationally-determined contribution (NDC) targets for 2030 include cutting CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 65 per cent from 2005 levels, increasing the share of non-fossil-fuel energy to around 25 per cent, raising forest stock volumes by 6 billion cubic metres, and bringing the installed capacity of wind and solar power to more than 1,200 Gw.

 

It pledges to peak around 2030 and reach net-zero by 2060. By not taking any absolute reduction targets, China can still increase emissions by increasing coal-based power plants while meeting its quantitative pledges. China’s leadership in green technologies, enabled by its industrial policy, is helping the world transition to a green economy at a lower cost. The Chinese economy has, however, been under extreme internal stress and will be further impacted externally if a mutually acceptable settlement on the tariff issues raised by Mr Trump’s trade policy is not arrived at sooner rather than later. These developments will impact the global economy in a significant way. They will also slow down green transition in the medium term, as major emitters would face financial constraints. Emboldened by the American stance, China might also feel less obliged to phase down coal plants. Assuming the Chinese economy continues to grow at 5 to 6 per cent (with a concomitant increase in energy demand), it can rely both on fossil and non-fossil fuels. The emission levels will continue to rise.

 

India, being a distant third emitter, has been progressing well in meeting its climate commitments. It is ranked 10th in the Climate Change Performance Index in 2025 (against China’s 55th rank). India is well ahead of schedule on all its commitments and is progressing strongly in deploying renewable projects, both grid-based and off-grid. However, it remains heavily dependent on coal for electricity generation.

 

In such a fluid scenario, the EU, China, and India will have to do the heavy lifting if global targets are to be pursued. The EU must reassert its position as a champion of the climate cause by accommodating the concerns of poor countries in its trade-related climate regulations and increasing financial and technical assistance. China must help the Global South by offering access to green technologies at affordable prices, and India should assist by supporting the development of green projects in these economies while doubling down on efforts within its own economy. It will also make good diplomatic and business sense. They can also continue and bolster evidence-based climate-related research programmes on all climate solutions, including carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies, till the US makes a course correction once again, (this time for the good of all). Whether they will be able to do so in the face of rising global headwinds is the big question.

 

The authors are, respectively, distinguished fellow and consultant, at RIS. The views are personal