Climate concerns: Changing rainfall patterns threaten agriculture

A recent study published in the Reserve Bank of India’s March bulletin highlights a pressing concern — the increasing variability in rainfall and its impact on food-crop production. It reaffirms that agriculture in India still relies heavily on monsoon. While the expansion of modern irrigation facilities and the development of climate-resilient seed varieties have provided some relief, rainfall continues to be a decisive factor. Precipitation during the southwest monsoon remains critical for agricultural production during the kharif season. Erratic rain and drought-like conditions tend to disrupt crop-growing cycles and exacerbate pest and plant-disease problems. In contrast, a spell of good rain helps in raising output and farm productivity. A good monsoon is also conducive to rabi season. Ample soil moisture and augmented reservoir levels provide ideal sowing conditions for key crops such as wheat, mustard, and lentil.

 

Annual growth in the production of four crop groups — coarse cereals, oilseeds, pulses, and rice — during the kharif season indicates higher output during years when the southwest monsoon is better across all crops. However, excess rain significantly affects the yield of maize and oilseeds. The study notes that the timing of the monsoon also influences production. For instance, deficient rain in June and July is harmful, particularly for crops like maize, pulses, and soybeans, because insufficient moisture delays sowing and affects early plant growth. On the other hand, excess rain during the harvest season significantly reduces yields of oilseeds. Abundant monsoon rain last year and normal winter conditions boded well for agricultural production this financial year, with kharif and rabi food grain production estimated to have increased 7.9 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively, relative to the previous year. Although the India Meteorological Department has not yet released its monsoon forecast for 2025, global projections made by the World Meteorological Organization suggest a normal to above-normal rainfall season in the country.

 

However, it is worth highlighting that long-term changes in rainfall patterns, owing to climate change, are expected to have a greater impact on agricultural production. Extreme weather events are no longer isolated incidents. In 2024, India experienced extreme weather events on 322 days, up from 318 in 2023, affecting around 4.07 million hectares of crop area. In the absence of any multipronged strategy, the numbers are only set to increase. Heatwaves and floods arising from deficient and erratic rain, respectively, were recorded in excess of 250 days last year. Climate change-induced heat stress and flooding are amplifying risks in the form of decreased crop yields and the lower nutrition value of produce, making it critical to shift to more adaptive farm practices. Climate-resilient agricultural practices, improvement in drainage systems, flood and drought management, and a smart use of technology can go a long way in improving agricultural efficiency and sustainability. There is also a need to be mindful of long-term water management. Natural farming, different from organic or non-chemical farming, needs to be encouraged. It not only provides farmers income from diverse crops with different durations but also helps in the regeneration of the soil structure. Overall, India needs to work on climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.