Rising global risks

Alarming WEF report highlights the need for collective action

At a time when the world is beset by shocks, the findings of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024 come as no surprise. Based on a risk perception survey of around 1,500 experts worldwide, this report puts forth a pessimistic outlook for the global risk landscape over the next two and 10 years. Climate-related risks, particularly extreme weather events, remain a dominant theme, both in the short and long terms. The threat from misinformation and disinformation is identified as the most severe short-term threat, including in India. Societal polarisation is also perceived as a major threat.

Disinformation, or deliberately misleading information and narrative manipulation, is not new, but the internet has magnified its reach and scope. This is particularly significant in a year when almost half the world’s population is set to vote in upcoming elections. In this context, foreign and domestic actors alike can leverage fake news to malign the legitimacy of political players. Disinformation also has the potential to corrode democratic processes in the long run. Just as there are risks from government inaction, there is also a risk of repression and erosion of rights as authorities seek to crack down on propagation of false information.

While there has been a general decline in trust as a result of disinformation, the number of people believing in false narratives has surged. People frequently only skimming news stories without checking sources, and then sharing the same with others in their network, only aggravates the problem. This is a classic case of the deleterious effects of human networks. Another risk closely linked to threats from disinformation is societal polarisation. One tends to amplify the other. A growing distrust of information deepens polarised views and leads to a vicious cycle that could trigger civil unrest and possible confrontation. Legislation can, theoretically, regulate the spread of false information. Governments can also focus on awareness campaigns to help citizens spot disinformation. However, some of these steps could give governments the power to regulate content on the internet, thereby undermining freedom of expression. Thus, there are no easy answers in the short run, even as the risk continues to increase.

The report identifies extreme weather events as the most pressing risk over a longer period and lists as threats issues like critical change to earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, natural resource shortages, and pollution. This becomes more important as global warming is projected to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial averages by the 2030s. Extreme weather and planetary changes are mutually reinforcing; for instance, heat waves collapse coral reef systems. Addressing these issues requires an evolved approach to climate risk management and increased investment in research and development to boost preparedness for inevitable events. The report also highlights the importance of collective action and technology that can act as an enabler against the climate threat. However, collaboration at the global scale has not been forthcoming, particularly due to the reluctance of advanced economies.