Trump's early exit halted meaningful progress at G7, but Modi made gains

If proof were needed, the 51st meeting of the G7 in the idyllic setting of Kananaskis, Alberta, hosted by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, offered the most visible evidence yet that the Western consensus on rules-based democracy and trade has fragmented under United States (US) President Donald Trump. The two-day meeting had an elaborate agenda that included such lofty themes as “strengthening partnerships for financing development and shared prosperity”, an AI (artificial intelligence) initiative for growth and building critical mineral-supply chains, and migrant smuggling, apart from discussions on Iran and Ukraine. The fact that a joint communique was off the table underlined the disarray in the ranks, although there were some joint statements on individual topics. Mr Trump’s abrupt decision to abandon the summit and return to Washington DC on the first day due to developments related to the Iran-Israel war ensured that the summit ended in stalemate.

 

With the Iran-Israel war overshadowing proceedings, a minimalist statement urging a “de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza” was issued but did not mention a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. A joint statement of support for Ukraine was also dropped under American objections, though the inclusion of a clause in the chairman’s summary statement expressing the intention to explore “all options to maximise pressure on Russia, including financial sanctions” was included over Mr Trump’s objections. As for the trade deals that Mr Trump sought from the summit, neither Canada, nor Japan, nor the European Union was able to advance its agenda.

 

Notably, it was Prime Minister Narendra Modi who derived some value from the event, having accepted Mr Carney’s invitation to attend. An Indo-Canadian thaw was one of them. The meeting between the two leaders offered the first evidence of the possibility of a reset after months of strained relations between the two nations during Justin Trudeau’s premiership. As a first “calibrated step”, the two leaders agreed to a restoration of high commissioners. The two Prime Ministers also agreed to resume senior and working-level mechanisms and discussions in a host of areas related to trade, people-to-people contact, and connectivity. More diplomatic steps are expected to follow. The Canadian readout of the meeting said the discussion also reaffirmed “transnational crime and repression, security, and the rules-based order”.

 

These are undoubtedly positive signs between two countries that share deep cultural ties — approximately 5 per cent of Canada’s population are of Indian origin —but key questions remain. For one, the state of play on Ottawa’s accusation that the Indian-government agents had been involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader on Canadian soil — the key cause of the breakdown in relations in 2023 — is unclear. Mr Carney is also likely to face pressures within his own country from the powerful political lobby of Sikh Canadians. Sikh protesters held a protest rally in Calgary, the city closest to the G7 venue, against Mr Carney’s decision to invite Mr Modi. Meanwhile, Mr Modi’s 35-minute phone-call with Mr Trump appears to have yielded some progress, with the US President accepting the Prime Minister’s invite to the next Quad summit in New Delhi later this year. Given that the Quad had stalled under previous President Joe Biden, this must be seen as a major gain. How much this grouping will achieve under a maverick world leader is an open question.