BJP-led NDA could gain in Rajya Sabha polls to 56 seats on February 27

On Monday, the Election Commission said elections for 56 Rajya Sabha seats, almost a fourth of its total elected strength of 233 seats (excluding a dozen nominated seats), will take place on February 27.

The BJP currently holds nearly half of the 56 seats. The BJP, despite its losses in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh, could be the net gainer thanks to its recent wins in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan Assembly polls.

The strength of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that it leads, currently at 114, is also set to improve with the return of the Janata Dal (United) to its fold and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) joining the ruling bloc.

Prominent of the 56 members set to retire are former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President J P Nadda, Union Ministers Ashwini Vaishnaw, Dharmendra Pradhan, Bhupender Yadav, Mansukh Mandaviya, V Muraleedharan, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Parshottam Rupala, and Narayan Rane. Of the 56, 50 retire on April 2 and six on April 3, the EC said.

In the recent past, the BJP has indicated it would want some of its Rajya Sabha members, especially those who have completed two terms in the Upper House, to contest the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. The last date for filing of nominations is February 15.

Nadda, elected to the Rajya Sabha in 2012, is a two-term MP from Himachal Pradesh. With the Congress winning Himachal in December 2022, the BJP cannot win the lone Himachal vacancy and it remains to be seen if the BJP would field him from another state. Pradhan and Yadav are also completing their respective two terms as Rajya Sabha members. Former PM Singh is an MP from Rajasthan, but the 91-year-old has been ailing and has been unable to attend Parliament in recent times.

Uttar Pradesh will have the highest number of vacancies of 10 seats, followed by Maharashtra and Bihar (six each), Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal (five each), Karnataka and Gujarat (four each), Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Rajasthan (three each), and Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, and Chhattisgarh (one each).

The NDA's current strength in the Upper House of Parliament is 114, including 93 of the BJP. The Congress has 30 seats, the second highest. The Congress will look at Karnataka and Telangana, two states it won in 2023, to send its leaders to the Rajya Sabha.

The BJP-led NDA could gain half a dozen seats from Maharashtra, Bihar, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. The loss in Telangana will reduce the Bharat Rashtra Samithi's strength in the House.

Other known faces set to retire are Congress member Abhishek Manu Singhvi, Rashtriya Janata Dal's Manoj Kumar Jha, BJP's Sushil Kumar Modi and Congress member Akhilesh Prasad Singh, BJP's Prakash Javadekar, GVL Narasimha Rao, Sudhanshu Trivedi, and Samajwadi Party's Jaya Bachchan.