Indian Americans favour Joe Biden's India policy over Donald Trump's

Compared to 2020, Indian Americans are more bullish on India's trajectory, reveals an analysis based on a recent survey. Archis Mohan writes

Many Indian Americans are concerned about the India-US bilateral relations under the Donald Trump administration, according to an analysis released on Sunday of the foreign policy attitudes of Indian Americans, based on a recent survey.

  The survey found that Indian Americans rate the Joe Biden administration’s record on India slightly better than that of the first Trump administration. The respondents believe that the bilateral relationship would have been more likely to prosper under a potential Kamala Harris administration compared to a second Trump administration. The Foreign Policy Attitudes of Indian Americans: 2024 Survey Results was conducted by academics Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, Annabel Richter, and Milan Vaishnav. This study is the second in a three-part series on the social, political, and foreign policy attitudes of Indian Americans.

  The study is based on a representative online survey of 1,206 Indian American adult residents — the Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) — conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in partnership with the research and analytics firm YouGov in October 2024. Of the respondents, 83 per cent are US citizens, and 49 per cent of the total respondents are women. The median age of respondents was 40, and the median annual household income ranged from $80,000 to $99,000.

  Compared to 2020, Indian Americans are more bullish on India’s trajectory. Forty-seven per cent of Indian Americans believe that India is headed in the right direction, marking a 10 percentage point increase from four years ago. The same share approves of Narendra Modi’s performance as prime minister. According to four in 10 respondents, India’s 2024 election made the country more democratic.

  According to the analysis, survey respondents held a favourable view of the Biden administration’s approach towards India. Thirty-one per cent of respondents strongly approved of the administration’s handling of US-India relations, while another 17 per cent approved, bringing the total approval rating to 48 per cent. In contrast, a combined 23 per cent of respondents either disapproved or strongly disapproved of the Biden administration’s stewardship of the bilateral relationship.

  Respondents assessed Biden’s handling of US-India ties more positively than Trump’s record in 2020. Data from the 2020 IAAS showed that only 33 per cent of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of bilateral relations at the end of his first term.

  When asked to evaluate the extent of US support for India towards the end of Biden’s four-year term, 38 per cent said US support for India is at an appropriate level. However, 28 per cent viewed that the US is insufficiently supportive of India, while 17 per cent felt the US is too supportive, and 16 per cent had no opinion. The analysis found that respondents born in the United States were more than twice as likely to say that the US is too supportive compared to respondents born abroad (27 per cent versus 11 per cent). 

The survey also examined a crucial debate in India-US relations over the past decade: whether Washington should prioritise democratic values or broader strategic interests in structuring its relationship with New Delhi. Respondents were asked to assess the relative emphasis the Biden administration placed on democratic values versus larger geopolitical or strategic interests.

  “Interestingly,” the analysis noted, “there is very little consensus on this question. A plurality of respondents (31 per cent) reported that the Biden administration struck the right balance between promoting democratic values and protecting America’s long-term strategic interests. Twenty-eight per cent believed that the US administration prioritised its strategic interests over concerns about India’s democracy, while only 17 per cent stated that the United States prioritised concerns about India’s democracy over its long-term strategic interests. Nearly one-quarter (24 per cent) did not express a clear view.”

  A nearly identical number—50 per cent—said the United States would not be justified in undertaking similar activities on Indian soil in response to a separatist threat, whereas 28 per cent said it would be justified. Thus, a slim majority of respondents believe that targeting separatists on another country’s soil, particularly when they are citizens of that country, is not justified.

  The analysis explored the thorny issue of India’s alleged involvement in an “murder-for-hire” plot targeting a Khalistani activist, an American citizen on US soil. Only half (51 per cent) responded that they were aware of the US Justice Department’s charges filed against an Indian national in the alleged assassination plot. Fifty-one per cent of respondents said the Indian government would not be justified in assassinating a US citizen on US soil, even if it believed the person was promoting a violent separatist movement in India, while 26 per cent said it would be justified.

  A nearly identical number, 50 per cent, said the US would not be justified in undertaking similar activities on Indian soil in response to a separatist threat, whereas 28 per cent said it would be justified. Thus, a bare majority of respondents believe that targeting separatists on another country’s soil, particularly when they are citizens of that country, is not justified.

  Regarding India’s domestic trajectory, the Indian American diaspora is more optimistic compared to 2020. Nearly half of Indian Americans approve of Modi’s performance as prime minister, though many remain concerned about rising Hindu majoritarianism. 

THE FINDINGS

31% of respondents strongly approved of the Biden administration’s handling of US-India relations

  17% approved the scenario

  23% of respondents either disapproved or strongly disapproved of the Biden administration’s stewardship of the bilateral relationship