No-confidence motion against Modi govt: The last arrow in Oppn's quiver

Many believe that the no-trust vote the Narendra Modi-led government will have to face in a few days is a self-goal.

“We had considered a no-confidence motion as one of the weapons in our arsenal. But it was not on the front burner because we were conscious that the numbers are against us,” explains an Opposition Member of Parliament (MP) from the Lok Sabha (LS).

“If the Prime Minister (PM) had even uttered the ‘Manipur’ word in the LS (he said something outside Parliament House about that disgusting video, and we thought he would follow it up with reassurance in the House), we would have pressed for a discussion, and that would have been that. We wanted the PM to speak, and he just refused to — now we have the opportunity, not just in the LS but also in the Rajya Sabha (RS), to lay the government on the mat, not just on its abysmal failure in Manipur but also on a host of other things. And the government has only itself to blame for this,” he says.

“It is not a matter of numbers but of morality,” says Congress MP Manish Tewari. “And who knows, maybe the happenings in Manipur will jolt even some ruling party MPs into voting with us!”

As the Opposition gets ready to train its guns on the government, the ruling alliance is pushing through as many Bills as it can in the monsoon session of Parliament, an action Congress MP from Assam Gaurav Gogoi deems ‘illegal’.

“When notice has been given of no-confidence motion and the Speaker (Om Birla) has accepted it, the rule is that the government must give precedence to the no-confidence motion and halt all other business. The thinking is that if the no-confidence motion passes, the government has to resign, and in that grey zone, its legitimacy is in question. This government is passing Bills as if it is business as usual,” says Gogoi.

As the LS Speaker mulls an appropriate date for the no-confidence motion, the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2023; the National Nursing and Midwifery Commission Bill, 2023; and the National Dental Commission Bill, 2023, have already been passed in the LS. The Lower House passed the Forest (Conservation) Amendment Bill, 2023, in 30 minutes!

In the RS, the Constitution (Scheduled Tribe) Order (Third Amendment) Bill, 2022, was passed through a voice vote after the Opposition staged a walkout. The RS has also cleared the Cinematograph (Amendment) Bill, 2023.

An indignant Pralhad Joshi, Union Parliamentary Affairs Minister, said outside Parliament House: “We offered the Opposition a debate (on Manipur). It only wants a no-confidence. Of course, we will defeat the bloc. But does it think the government will stop working in the meantime?”

CONFIDENCE IN MOTION: Moving the goalposts or scoring a self-goal, no-trust votes are not just about the government having the numbers and winning the motion arithmetically. They are also about politics. And the Opposition is ostensibly fighting the good fight

Not just numbers but also speeches

Experts say no-confidence motions are not just about the government having the numbers and winning the motion arithmetically.

They are also about politics.

They point out that the current stand-off came about because the PM ignored the Opposition’s demand for a statement in Parliament on Manipur. The no-confidence motion will force the PM to speak; he may choose to speak on Manipur — or not.

“But no-confidence motions are about rhetoric. They are about the quality of speeches. Some of the best parliamentary speeches delivered in India’s history have been during no-confidence motions. While the PM is brilliant when it comes to speaking, in the Opposition, there is really no one who can rank with him,” says a parliamentary historian. “The Opposition has good speakers in the RS. But there, the matter will be discussed under Rule 267. It’s not quite the same thing,” he adds.

There is no rule about who in the government should respond to a motion of no-confidence. In theory, it has to be the PM.

But in 1981, when the Opposition moved a no-confidence motion, Indira Gandhi, who was the PM, was abroad, so it was her number 2, R Venkatraman, who was finance minister, who replied. “If the government so wants, the animal husbandry minister can reply to a no-confidence motion instead of the PM. We have to see what happens.”

Experts say it is complicated.

“Manipur is more than just a law-and-order issue. Several foreign Parliaments and foreign governments have questioned the Indian government’s handling of the Manipur crisis. Only the PM can decisively and authoritatively rebut all that. That is what the Opposition has been asking for,” is the widely held expert opinion.

Says P D T Achary, former Secretary-General of the 14th and 15th LS: “A no-confidence motion is not merely a parliamentary device to unseat a government. It is also a way to register disappointment or outrage against a government.”

Mahesh Jethmalani has his view.

“As often happens with bad losers, the more you shrink, the lower you sink,” the BJP MP tweeted on the no-confidence motion.

“Since 2014, there has been no Leader of Opposition in the LS, as no Opposition party since 2014 has secured the required 10 per cent of seats in that House. In spite of having abjectly lost the confidence of the electorate in the polls twice, far from being humble, they resort to ridiculous stratagems only to appear relevant,” he adds.

The stage is set. All that is left are lights – and camera!