'Super year for elections' turns tumultuous for those currently in power

2024 saw a string of elections globally, with incumbents struggling, historic shifts in Africa and Europe, and firsts for women in leadership, writes Archis Mohan

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) dubbed 2024 as a “super year for elections,” with an estimated 3.7 billion electors across 72 nations slated to elect heads of state, heads of government, or local representatives by year’s end. Many political analysts described this as a “global election super-cycle”, spotlighting a historic convergence of elections in Nato member states like the US, France, Finland, Hungary, and the UK, nearly the entire Indian subcontinent, and numerous African nations. 

Data from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA), a Stockholm-based intergovernmental organisation, indicated that 62 countries have completed their elections this year (as of November 10), with Mauritius conducting its parliamentary polls most recently on Sunday. Voter turnout for these global elections has averaged 61 per cent, with approximately 1.59 billion ballots cast, including in the European parliamentary vote. 

Weak mandates for incumbents 

Election results in democracies, where non-authoritarian leaders were in power, displayed an unfavourable trend towards incumbents. In several countries, including Indonesia, Sri Lanka, the US, and the UK, elections ushered in new leadership, while others like India, the European Union, France, Japan, and South Africa saw incumbents return but with reduced mandates. Mexico stands as an outlier, where the incumbent party improved its standing. 

In Bangladesh, the Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina, won the January elections but faced a turbulent exit following violent protests in August. Meanwhile, Mozambique has grappled with violent unrest, with 30 casualties reported amid election protests, according to Human Rights Watch. Authoritarian governments, however, held ground, as seen in Algeria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Russia, and Chad, where leaders returned with commanding majorities. 

African electoral shifts 

Botswana’s October 30 general elections marked a watershed, ending 58 years of single-party dominance by the Botswana Democratic Party, which lost to the Center-Left opposition. In South Africa, the ruling African National Congress experienced a sharp decline in support, losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since Apartheid’s end in 1994. 

Remarkable moments in the Americas 

In Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum became the nation’s first female president, succeeding Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Left-leaning Morena Party. The US election saw the Democrats lose both the presidency, with Republican Donald Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris, and control of the Senate. 

Key transitions in Asia 

In Indonesia, with Joko Widodo ineligible to run for a third term as President, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto won a majority — the largest for any Indonesian candidate in a democratic election. Japan’s October 27 elections yielded a setback for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its ally Komeito, as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a difficult parliamentary session. In Sri Lanka, Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power defeated the then incumbent president, Ranil Wickremesinghe. 

Changing political landscape in Europe 

In the UK, Labour’s Keir Starmer defeated the ruling Conservatives, led by Rishi Sunak, in a resounding landslide. Hungary elected a new president, while in Finland, Alexander Stubb narrowly won the presidency in the nation’s first election since joining the Nato in 2023. Austria’s legislative elections on September 29 saw the Far-Right Freedom Party of Austria secure the most seats, marking a post-World War II milestone. In France, a snap election led to a hung parliament, with a Left-wing bloc emerging with the largest number of seats.