To win 370 LS seats, BJP needs to significantly improve its strike rate

In 1984, the Congress won 404 of the seats that went to the polls in December and later another 10 seats when the Lok Sabha elections took place in Assam and Punjab

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has set itself a target of winning 370 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, or 68.13 per cent of all the seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

To achieve this, the BJP would need to contest more seats than it did in 2014 and 2019 and also better the strike rate that the Congress achieved in its unprecedented 1984 Lok Sabha win.

In 1984, the Congress had won 404 of the seats that went to the polls in December and later another 10 seats when the Lok Sabha elections took place in Assam and Punjab.

In total, the Congress won 414 of the 526 seats that it contested, or 78.7 per cent. However, unlike the BJP, the Congress at that time had a nationwide footprint.

In 2014, the BJP had contested 428 seats and won 282 seats, a strike rate of 65.88 per cent. The BJP improved its strike in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, winning 303 of the 436 it contested, a strike rate of 69.49 per cent. 

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP could contest 450 seats, which it is trying to do by persuading its allies to field their candidates on its “lotus” election symbol, or contest more seats in states such as Maharashtra and Punjab, where earlier its allies, such as the Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal, contested a sizeable number of seats. To win even 370 seats of 450, the BJP would need a strike rate of 82.22 per cent.

 

To achieve this:
 

- BJP needs to contest more seats than it did in 2014, 2019

1984: Congress contested 517 to win 414 Strike rate: 80.07%

2014: BJP contested 428 seats to win 282 Strike rate: 65.88%

2019: BJP contested 436 to win 303 Strike rate of 69.49%