India’s goal of becoming the world’s food factory will depend not only on boosting exports but also on fixing deep structural problems, experts said at BS Manthan on Wednesday. They pointed to concerns such as declining soil health, poorly targeted fertiliser subsidies, uneven growth across crops and distorted market incentives that need urgent attention.
Speaking at a panel discussion titled 'Can India be the world’s food factory?', the experts said that although India has become a major exporter of products like rice and shrimp, it must carry out reforms in precision farming, improve subsidy targeting, strengthen market systems, and focus on long-term policy planning to sustainably feed both its population and global markets.
Trade strength, but structural gaps remain
Ashok Gulati, professor at ICRIER, said India is already well placed in global agricultural trade, especially as it negotiates major trade agreements.
Gulati noted that while the US and China are net importers of agricultural products, India is a net exporter. Despite this, he said India is at least 20 years away from achieving nutritional security. Around 35 per cent of children below the age of five are stunted due to undernourishment, he said.
According to Gulati, this is linked to soil degradation. Wheat and rice consumed today have become deficient in nutrition because soils themselves are deficient.
“We need to invest a lot in regenerating your soil,” he said. “Unless we go for regenerative agriculture and change our policies, products and practices, we will not be able to even meet our own needs."
The overall resources going to agriculture are not less, he said, but they are not going in the right direction. About 22 per cent of urea does not go to agriculture. It is diverted to industries such as plywood and other sectors, and even smuggled to neighbouring countries.
He further stressed the importance of building an agri-stack to better identify beneficiaries. One key issue, he said, is that policymakers often do not know who the real farmer is because of tenancy problems. Schemes like PM-Kisan are linked to land records, but the recorded landowner may be living abroad.
Using digital tools, space technology and fertilizer sales data, the government can triangulate information to identify land ownership, crops grown, recommended fertiliser doses from state agricultural universities and actual purchases. If implemented properly, this could save between ?30,000 crore and ? 40,000 crore annually from fertilizer subsidy, he said.
Strong growth, but uneven across crops and states
Ramesh Chand, member of NITI Aayog, said the biggest issue is the mindset of some stakeholders who focus only on negativity and overlook the sector’s achievements.
India’s agriculture has recorded its historically highest growth rate of 4.6 per cent in the last 10 years up to 2024-25, he said. Among countries with more than 1 per cent share in global agricultural GDP, India is the fastest growing, having overtaken China.
In some states, agriculture growth has been as high as 7 per cent, exceeding manufacturing growth in those states. However, he acknowledged that growth is not uniform.
'A 20-year reform vision needed'
Laveesh Bhandari, president and senior fellow at CSEP, said India is too cautious about opening up its agriculture sector. Large parts of it may not be competitive, but without reform and exposure, it is difficult to determine its true potential, he said.
Bhandari said a long-term focus is needed in agriculture, similar to what has been done in telecom, primary education and roads in the last 20-30 years. The emphasis should be on addressing contributory issues where market failures exist, he said.
“We want agriculture be a surplus creating activity," Bhandari said.
 "Soil health, markets key to agricultural growth: Experts at BS Manthan")
